KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.13
Hit
41.6%
EV+
-28.0%
Edge
-0.4
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.2
Hit
44.4%
EV+
-23.0%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
Rifler
nbqq
BRUTE vs Metizport
RISK · UNDER 26.5
BEST UNDER · UD 27.5PP26.5UD27.5
▼ L5 23.4 · L20 29.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.32
Previous meeting · vs Metizport
No meeting with Metizport in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
29.9
3/7 hit at 26.5
Online · this match
29.6
4/13 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nbqq is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.671 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.13
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
41.6%
EV+
-28.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.5
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.6%
0 →
Learned
41.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
43.8%356 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 4.6 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 39.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 38% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 4.6 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 26.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 51%. Next: vs Metizport, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.13 vs line 26.5 → -0.37 (-1.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 39.5 rounds · 2-0 48% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.85
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.69
ADR
80.3
KAST
73.5%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.5 · KPR 0.648 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.6 · KPR 0.672 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.671
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.25%
Final projected kills26.13
Metizport gives up (40 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 51.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~22 kills · 33r72.4%
Normal45%
~26 kills · 39r57.8%
Close maps14.1%
~28 kills · 42r48.4%
Overtime16.7%
~32 kills · 48r33.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 37.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 38% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
19.3r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
+1% KPR here
Total
39.5r
2-0 sweep48%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 30.7 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 36.9% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 39.2% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 41.6% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 43.9% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 48.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- First seen26.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
53.6%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.85
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
63.4%
K/D
0.85
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.85
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
32%
K/D
1.25
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | INFINITE | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 21 Cache 16-12 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 11 Nuke 13-3 | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 8 Cache 8-13 | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 28 Inferno 19-16 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 21 Dust2 13-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 24 Mirage 10-13 | 45 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 15 Mirage 13-1 | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 12 Cache 16-12 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 26 Anubis 16-14 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 12 Cache 7-13 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 20 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Dust2 13-4 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
