KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.13
Hit
59.3%
EV+
+2.7%
Edge
+0.6
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.64
Hit
52.2%
EV+
-9.7%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
art
Legacy vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 24.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP24.5UD24.5
▲ L5 25.2 · L20 24.2Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.41
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.2
11/20 hit at 24.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm arT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.542 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (24.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.13
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
59.3%
EV+
+2.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.3%
0 →
Learned
59.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
55.1%196 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 45.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 24% (under 40%) · team 68% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 1.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.7 kills vs line 24.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 46%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.7 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 25.13 vs line 24.5 → +0.63 (2.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 80% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.1
HS/Map
5.6
K/D
0.77
KPR
0.55
ADR
62.8
KAST
71.7%
HS%
46.3%
Multi-kill
12%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.9 · KPR 0.583 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.3 · KPR 0.53 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.542
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.31%
Final projected kills25.13
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 57.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~21 kills · 38r23%
Normal49.2%
~25 kills · 46r54.9%
Close maps14.5%
~27 kills · 48r66.4%
Overtime12.2%
~30 kills · 54r84.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 68% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.3r
-5% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 26.7 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 65.8% | |
| 23.5 Over | 64.1% | |
| 24.5 Over | 59.3% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 51.3% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 42.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.58
HS%
44.3%
K/D
0.88
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.51
HS%
51%
K/D
0.72
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
47.9%
K/D
0.72
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.48
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.65
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.94
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
36.4%
K/D
0.75
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.47
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | DENDELE | 9 Cache 13-9 | 19 Mirage 19-17 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 24 Ancient 23-25 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 10 Nuke 13-16 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 15 Cache 13-10 | 10 Inferno 5-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 14 Nuke 14-16 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 18 Inferno 13-9 | 10 Ancient 13-2 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | FaZe | 9 Cache 6-13 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | G2 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Overpass 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
