CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.16
Hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.4%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.75
Hit
41.1%
EV+
-28.7%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
vision
Rifler
vision
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
48%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 26
BEST OVER · UD 25.5PP26UD25.5SL26.5
▼ L5 25.2 · L20 27.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.39
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
27
Over 26 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.5
3/4 hit at 26
Online
27.5
7/16 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm vision is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.624 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.4%) or blowout (40.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.16
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
47.7%
EV+
-17.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.7%
0 →
Learned
47.7%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.5%246 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge +1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
  • L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
  • Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%)
  • Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.5 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 25.5 against a 26.5 line

  • 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 27.16 vs line 26 → +1.16 (4.5%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −0.6 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 65.4% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.3
KAST
70.6%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)12.9 · KPR 0.646 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.1 · KPR 0.582 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.624
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.24%
Final projected kills25
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
11121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647line 26
Lopsided maps40.5%
~23 kills · 35r23.4%
Normal28.7%
~30 kills · 45r70.3%
Close maps23%
~29 kills · 45r68.6%
Overtime7.8%
~33 kills · 51r87.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #143VRS #132HLTV #142VRS #134
Ground Zero 20%80% Off Chops
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.0% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −0.6 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
20.4r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.3r
-1% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep65.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 25.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
24 Over56.5%below BE
25 Over52.2%below BE
26 Over47.7%OFFERED
27 Over43.3%below BE
28 Over39.1%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26.5→26-0.5
  1. Moved down26.5 → 26
    Oct 25, 08:45 PM
  2. First seen26.5
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
55.8%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.83
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-16Off Chops10 Dust2 6-1317 Anubis 13-1127SplitOver ✓
2026-10-16Abyssal17 Inferno 13-312 Ancient 6-1329SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-11Abyssal13 Inferno 8-139 Nuke 7-1322LUnder ✗
2026-10-11FlyQuest13 Anubis 10-1315 Inferno 10-1328LOver ✓
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER8 Inferno 8-1312 Dust2 9-1320LUnder ✗
2026-09-27Rooster10 Anubis 6-1320 Nuke 13-1130SplitOver ✓
2026-09-26Abyssal14 Inferno 13-1121 Dust2 12-1635SplitOver ✓OT
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER8 Ancient 4-137 Dust2 3-1315LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER18 Dust2 8-135 Inferno 1-1323LUnder ✗BO
2026-08-31Arcade12 Nuke 13-314 Dust2 13-1026WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER11 Nuke 5-1314 Inferno 13-1125SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-08-28Rooster11 Anubis 13-425 Nuke 19-1536WOver ✓OTBO
2026-08-26LFO 819 Ancient 13-1018 Dust2 13-337WOver ✓BO
2026-08-13Abyssal9 Ancient 13-114 Anubis 13-823WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-12Mindfreak13 Inferno 13-613 Dust2 13-626WUnder ✗
2026-08-11Abyssal9 Ancient 7-138 Anubis 0-117LUnder ✗BO
2026-08-10Mindfreak22 Nuke 13-1013 Anubis 13-435WOver ✓BO
2026-08-06Abyssal15 Mirage 13-020 Dust2 13-1135WOver ✓BO
2026-08-05Time Waves23 Inferno 19-1711 Nuke 13-334WOver ✓OTBO
2026-06-11Ding Cuts14 Mirage 13-99 Nuke 13-123WUnder ✗BO
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