KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.62
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
+0.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.12
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.0%
Edge
+2.1
L10
40%
AWPer
Gratisfaction
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
RISK · OVER 31
PP31
▲ L5 34.4 · L20 30.3Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.74
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
1/2 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
44
Over 31 ✓
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
22
Under 31 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
34.3
4/7 hit at 31
Online
28.1
4/13 hit at 31
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Gratisfaction is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.721 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55%) or blowout (30.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.62
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
0 →
Learned
51.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 29-33
All players · Kills
53.7%350 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.5 kills vs line 31.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 41%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.5 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.62 vs line 31 → +0.62 (2.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 55% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.12
HS/Map
6.28
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.77
ADR
77.3
KAST
72.3%
HS%
41.5%
Multi-kill
19.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.9 · KPR 0.76 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.7 · KPR 0.729 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.721
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.33%
Final projected kills31.62
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31. Model: 53.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.1%
~27 kills · 36r21.1%
Normal47.4%
~33 kills · 45r58.1%
Close maps16.9%
~34 kills · 46r61.2%
Overtime5.6%
~38 kills · 52r81.1%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Dust2
22.6r
-1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.4r
-5% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep55%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Over) · avg 32.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Over | 59.1% | |
| 30 Over | 54.9% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 32 Over | 48.9% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 45.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.21
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
42.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.2%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.84
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.48
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.77
HS%
29.2%
K/D
1.3
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.32
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
75%
K/D
1.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Alter Ego | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 24 Anubis 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 36 Dust2 17-19 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 19 Cache 13-2 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 21 Inferno 13-3 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 18 Dust2 10-13 | 25 Inferno 16-19 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 12 Inferno 4-13 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 19 Dust2 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 11 Inferno 2-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 18 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 23 Nuke 13-7 | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Inferno 13-1 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Alter Ego | 10 Cache 13-9 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Nuke 13-5 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 16 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Anubis 13-5 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Alter Ego | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
