CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.58
Hit
44.9%
EV+
-22.2%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.48
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
-0.5
L10
60%
vision
Rifler
vision
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
52%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 15
BEST UNDER · SL 15.5PP15UD14.5SL15.5
▼ L5 14.2 · L20 15.6Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.88
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
10
Under 15 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.8
2/4 hit at 15
Online
15.8
7/16 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm vision is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 57.1% HS): below 0.642 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.48
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.0%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
+0.9 →
Learned
52.8%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
41.4%321 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 40.9 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 21% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.6 headshots vs line 15.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 14.6 against a 15.0 line

  • 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 14.48 vs line 15 → -0.52 (-3.5%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 65.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.3
KAST
70.6%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.2 · KPR 0.645 · 20r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.8 · KPR 0.581 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.04
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.06%
Final projected kills24.52
× realistic HS% (57.1%)14.48
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 53.3% before the safety haircut.
45678910111213141516171819202122232425262728line 15
Lopsided maps40.5%
~12 HS · 35r74.3%
Normal28.7%
~16 HS · 45r39.3%
Close maps23%
~16 HS · 44r40.7%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 50r23%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #143VRS #132HLTV #142VRS #134
Ground Zero 21%79% Off Chops
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 21% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
20r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep65.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 14.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
13 Under37.4%below BE
14 Under44.6%below BE
15 Under51.9%OFFERED
16 Under58.5%
17 Under63.4%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→15no change
  1. First seen15
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
55.8%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.83
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-16Off Chops3 Dust2 6-137 Anubis 13-1110SplitUnder ✓
2026-10-16Abyssal11 Inferno 13-37 Ancient 6-1318SplitOver ✗BO
2026-10-11Abyssal8 Inferno 8-135 Nuke 7-1313LUnder ✓
2026-10-11FlyQuest8 Anubis 10-1310 Inferno 10-1318LOver ✗
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER7 Inferno 8-135 Dust2 9-1312LUnder ✓
2026-09-27Rooster6 Anubis 6-1312 Nuke 13-1118SplitOver ✗
2026-09-26Abyssal8 Inferno 13-1113 Dust2 12-1621SplitOver ✗OT
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Ancient 4-134 Dust2 3-138LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER10 Dust2 8-134 Inferno 1-1314LUnder ✓BO
2026-08-31Arcade6 Nuke 13-38 Dust2 13-1014WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER7 Nuke 5-138 Inferno 13-1115SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-08-28Rooster5 Anubis 13-415 Nuke 19-1520WOver ✗OTBO
2026-08-26LFO 811 Ancient 13-107 Dust2 13-318WOver ✗BO
2026-08-13Abyssal6 Ancient 13-19 Anubis 13-815WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-12Mindfreak7 Inferno 13-610 Dust2 13-617WOver ✗
2026-08-11Abyssal6 Ancient 7-134 Anubis 0-110LUnder ✓BO
2026-08-10Mindfreak15 Nuke 13-109 Anubis 13-424WOver ✗BO
2026-08-06Abyssal4 Mirage 13-010 Dust2 13-1114WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-05Time Waves13 Inferno 19-179 Nuke 13-322WOver ✗OTBO
2026-06-11Ding Cuts6 Mirage 13-95 Nuke 13-111WUnder ✓BO
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