KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.55
Hit
47.8%
EV+
-17.2%
Edge
+0.1
L10
33%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.36
Hit
57.6%
EV+
-0.2%
Edge
+0.9
L10
56%
Rifler · IGL
senka
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 12.5
▼ L5 11.8 · L20 12.6Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
56%
5/9
L20
56%
5/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.91
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
12.6
5/9 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm senka is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~25 kills at 52.3% HS): 0.541 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.1%) or blowout (21.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.36
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
57.6%
EV+
-0.2%
Rating
5/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.6%
0 →
Learned
57.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
54.3%322 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 55.6% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · 44.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 64% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/9 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.6 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/9 over). KPR 0.58, HS 52%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 12.6 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.36 vs line 12.5 → +0.86 (6.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 55.6% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 51.1% · OT 6.5%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
12
HS/Map
6.28
K/D
0.79
KPR
0.58
ADR
70.7
KAST
67.8%
HS%
52.3%
Multi-kill
12%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.6 · KPR 0.549 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Anubis)6.8 · KPR 0.618 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.541
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.72%
Final projected kills25.55
× realistic HS% (52.3%)13.36
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 61.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.4%
~11 HS · 37r33.8%
Normal60.1%
~14 HS · 45r60.1%
Close maps12%
~14 HS · 47r66.5%
Overtime6.5%
~16 HS · 53r80.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23.1r
-2% KPR here
M2 Anubis
21.1r
+11% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep51.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.5%
Overtime6.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 12.6 · hit 5/9 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.5% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 12.5 Over | 57.6% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 49.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 40.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 09:00 AM
- First seen12.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.77
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.67
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.43
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.56
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.5
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.61
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Illyrians | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 2 Dust2 8-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 6 Dust2 16-14 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ |
