KillsBetter playTake
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.98
Hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.7%
Edge
-4.5
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.79
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.4%
Edge
-1.7
L10
60%
AWPer
kashl1d
K27 vs B8
TAKE · UNDER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5SL28.5
▼ L5 24.6 · L20 26.4LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
74%
14/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.16
Previous meeting · vs B8
No meeting with B8 in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.8
4/4 hit at 28.5
Online
27.6
10/15 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kashl1d is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.702 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.98
Raw edge
-4.5
Cons. hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.7%
Rating
9.3/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
28.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
63.4%
0 →
Learned
63.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
45.4%496 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 81% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 73.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT 4% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.3 kills vs line 28.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 33%. Next: vs B8, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.3 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 23.98 vs line 28.5 → -4.52 (-15.9%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.4% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.18
HS/Map
4.29
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.61
ADR
64.4
KAST
71.6%
HS%
32.5%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.5 · KPR 0.652 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)10.4 · KPR 0.538 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.702
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.25
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.14%
Final projected kills23.98
B8 gives up (46 series)+4.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 81% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.7%
~20 kills · 34r95.9%
Normal60.5%
~25 kills · 42r76.3%
Close maps11.3%
~26 kills · 43r71.7%
Overtime3.5%
~29 kills · 49r46.3%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 AM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Cache
21r
+11% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 26.3 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 55.7% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 60.4% | |
| 28.5 Under | 63.4% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 64.5% | |
| 30.5 Under | 65.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 25, 09:40 PM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
36.3%
K/D
1.15
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.54
HS%
29.5%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.59
HS%
30.6%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.53
HS%
35.4%
K/D
0.79
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.9
HS%
24.6%
K/D
2.38
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.58
HS%
34.2%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 15 Nuke 11-13 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Ancient 10-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 12 Cache 10-13 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 19 Cache 10-13 | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 26 Anubis 13-10 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Cache 9-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 18 Cache 13-6 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 14 Anubis 13-5 | 25 Cache 14-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 6 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Cache 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 16 Cache 13-6 | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 16 Cache 4-13 | 10 Nuke 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 19 Cache 9-13 | 9 Ancient 1-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 11 Cache 10-13 | 6 Nuke 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
