KillsBetter playLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.55
Hit
60.7%
EV+
+5.1%
Edge
-3.0
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.44
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
-1.1
L10
60%
AWPer
mag1k3Y
Nemesis vs Inner Circle
LEAN · UNDER 29.5
BEST UNDER · SL 30.5PP29.5UD29.5SL30.5
≈ L5 27.2 · L20 26.8LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
82%
14/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.78
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle
No meeting with Inner Circle in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
26.8
14/17 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm mag1k3Y is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.728 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.55
Raw edge
-3.0
Cons. hit
60.7%
EV+
+5.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
29.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.7%
0 →
Learned
60.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
45%500 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 82.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 40.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 27% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.4 kills vs line 29.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 32%. Next: vs Inner Circle, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.4 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 26.55 vs line 29.5 → -2.95 (-10.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 6.4%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.41
HS/Map
4.26
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.67
ADR
68.5
KAST
78.4%
HS%
31.8%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13.8 · KPR 0.658 · 21.3r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.7 · KPR 0.67 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.728
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.88
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.21%
Final projected kills26.55
Inner Circle gives up (83 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 73.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.6%
~22 kills · 34r92.6%
Normal53.2%
~28 kills · 43r62.4%
Close maps9.8%
~28 kills · 43r59.2%
Overtime6.4%
~32 kills · 49r32.1%
Match context
Oct 27, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 26.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 27% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
21.3r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.2r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)16.2%
Overtime6.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 27.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 47.4% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 54% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 60.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 62.8% | |
| 31.5 Under | 64.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.69
HS%
29.8%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
29.8%
K/D
1.21
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
29.3%
K/D
1.48
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.26
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.58
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.44
HS%
23.1%
K/D
0.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | INOX Division | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | mellren | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | SINNERS | 17 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Cache 13-2 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | fnatic | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Cache 13-5 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Sashi | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 24 Ancient 9-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Rune Eaters | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Inferno 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | Wildcard | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-16 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | HOTU | 17 Cache 13-2 | 10 Nuke 8-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | EYEBALLERS | 17 Dust2 13-4 | 18 Cache 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | SINNERS | 13 Cache 13-10 | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | FORZE Reload | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemiga | 9 Mirage 1-13 | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | ASTRAL | 11 Cache 7-13 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | 1win | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Ancient 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | INFINITE | 9 Mirage 3-13 | 19 Ancient 13-5 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-22 | Aurora | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 18 Dust2 16-14 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-22 | INFINITE | 19 Mirage 13-6 | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ |
