KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.1
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.7%
Edge
+1.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.11
Hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.6%
Edge
+1.6
L10
70%
Rifler
Liazz
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
LEAN · OVER 16.5
PP16.5
▲ L5 17.8 · L20 16.9
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.18
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
1/1 hit · avg 22 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
22
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.2
9/12 hit at 16.5
Online
16.4
5/8 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Liazz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 53.1% HS): 0.713 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.2%) or blowout (30.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.11
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.5%
0 →
Learned
61.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
57.1%427 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.6 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 53%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.11 vs line 16.5 → +1.61 (9.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 58.2% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.31
KPR
0.77
ADR
82.9
KAST
73.1%
HS%
53.1%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.6 · KPR 0.794 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.5 · KPR 0.792 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.35%
Final projected kills34.1
× realistic HS% (53.1%)18.11
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 65% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.4%
~15 HS · 37r35.8%
Normal51.3%
~19 HS · 46r71%
Close maps12.7%
~19 HS · 47r73%
Overtime5.6%
~22 HS · 53r87.2%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.6r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep58.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 16.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 65.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 64% | |
| 16.5 Over | 61.5% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 46.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.8
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.36
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
55.1%
K/D
1.29
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1.31
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.82
HS%
31.7%
K/D
1.08
Cache
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.8
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Alter Ego | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 14 Dust2 17-19 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 4 Cache 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Inferno 16-19 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 7 Inferno 2-13 | 3 Ancient 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Inferno 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | FlyQuest | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 3 Nuke 1-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Rooster | 2 Nuke 13-0 | 16 Anubis 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
