KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.71
Hit
62.1%
EV+
+7.5%
Edge
+4.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.59
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.9%
Edge
+1.6
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
xertioN
MOUZ vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5
▼ L5 26.0 · L20 31.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.25
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.3
12/20 hit at 29.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xertioN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.734 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (36.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.71
Raw edge
+4.2
Cons. hit
62.1%
EV+
+7.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
62.1%
0 →
Learned
62.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
54.8%403 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.9% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 40.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 36% (under 40%) · team 76% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.3 kills vs line 29.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 55%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.3 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 33.71 vs line 29.5 → +4.21 (14.3%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.62
HS/Map
8.55
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.67
ADR
76.8
KAST
71.5%
HS%
54.7%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.9 · KPR 0.795 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.2 · KPR 0.769 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.734
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.44
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.07%
Final projected kills31.1
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 64.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.4%
~28 kills · 34r40.2%
Normal32.8%
~35 kills · 42r82.8%
Close maps16.4%
~36 kills · 43r85.9%
Overtime14.4%
~41 kills · 49r96.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.2r
+9% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20r
+6% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 29.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 66.7% | |
| 28.5 Over | 64.6% | |
| 29.5 Over | 62.1% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 59% | |
| 31.5 Over | 55.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.76
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.08
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
51%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.59
HS%
63.5%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 9z | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Nuke 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 20 Ancient 16-13 | 16 Inferno 12-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 15 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 14 Cache 13-4 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 10 Cache 8-13 | 30 Mirage 19-16 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 19 Cache 10-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 18 Cache 11-13 | 13 Inferno 13-5 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 20 Ancient 13-4 | 17 Mirage 13-5 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 10 Cache 13-4 | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 39 Ancient 19-22 | 58 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 16 Dust2 13-4 | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 16-12 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
