KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.93
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+12.0%
Edge
-2.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.56
Hit
59.6%
EV+
+11.5%
Edge
-0.9
L10
60%
AWPer
aidKiT
Brute vs INOX Division
RISK · UNDER 10.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSUD10.5SL10.5
▲ L5 11.8 · L20 10.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.49
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
8.3
8/9 hit at 10.5
Online · this match
11.7
5/11 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm aidKiT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 32.2% HS): below 0.788 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.56
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
59.6%
EV+
+11.5%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.6%
0 →
Learned
59.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
48.6%148 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 41.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 41% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.7 headshots vs line 10.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 32%. Next: vs INOX Division, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.7 against a 10.5 line
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 9.56 vs line 10.5 → -0.94 (-9.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 55.1% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.82
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
1.31
KPR
0.78
ADR
76.9
KAST
75.4%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
21.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)4.8 · KPR 0.743 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)5 · KPR 0.738 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.788
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills30.44
× realistic HS% (32.2%)9.56
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 63.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.6%
~8 HS · 35r80.2%
Normal41.7%
~10 HS · 43r60.6%
Close maps12.3%
~10 HS · 44r55.7%
Overtime14.4%
~12 HS · 50r40%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
20.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.2r
-6% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep55.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 10.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 42.7% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 51.7% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 59.6% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 65% | |
| 12.5 Under | 68.1% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
28.9%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32.3%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.55
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.5
KPR
0.88
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.58
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.67
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 9 Cache 8-13 | 3 Inferno 13-8 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 3 Mirage 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-11 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 6 Inferno 19-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 9 Inferno 16-13 | 7 Dust2 13-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 2 Mirage 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 1 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 2 Dust2 13-9 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 3 Inferno 10-13 | 5 Cache 16-12 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 7 Anubis 16-14 | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 6 Cache 7-13 | 3 Anubis 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 4 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
