KillsBetter playLean
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.08
Hit
57.2%
EV+
-0.8%
Edge
+2.6
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.28
Hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%
Rifler
Xant3r
Nemiga vs Legacy
LEAN · OVER 26.5
PP26.5
▲ L5 33.8 · L20 31.7
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.39
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
34
4/4 hit at 26.5
Online
31.1
11/16 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Xant3r is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.621 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.1%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.08
Raw edge
+2.6
Cons. hit
57.2%
EV+
-0.8%
Rating
4.2/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
26.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.2%
0 →
Learned
57.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
57.2%402 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 35% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 3.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.0 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 56%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.0 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.08 vs line 26.5 → +2.58 (9.7%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57.1% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.85
HS/Map
8.88
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.72
ADR
81
KAST
72.7%
HS%
56%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.1 · KPR 0.682 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)16 · KPR 0.68 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.07%
Final projected kills29.08
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 63.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~24 kills · 36r34.6%
Normal50.6%
~29 kills · 43r65.1%
Close maps5.8%
~31 kills · 46r74.6%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 52r89.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 7:55 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-2% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 33.0 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 62.5% | |
| 25.5 Over | 60.9% | |
| 26.5 Over | 57.2% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 54.5% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 47.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 27.5→26.5-1
- Back on board27.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 04:08 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 07:46 AM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
52%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
53.6%
K/D
1.3
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 16 Cache 7-13 | 22 Nuke 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 23 Cache 13-11 | 18 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 13 Cache 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 26 Mirage 16-12 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 26 Mirage 22-20 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 13 Cache 13-5 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 12 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 15 Nuke 13-2 | 28 Ancient 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Cache 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 8 Cache 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 20 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 15 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 19 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 22 Mirage 16-14 | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 11 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
