KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.88
Hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.9%
Edge
-1.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.57
Hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.1%
Edge
-0.4
L10
30%
Rifler
Forleks
Abyssal vs Rooster
RISK · UNDER 28
▼ L5 21.8 · L20 27.9LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 28 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Rooster
2/2 hit · avg 22.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2025-07-15 · CCT Season 3 Oceania Series 1
Dust2 5-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
21
Under 28 ✓
2025-05-04 · ESL Challenger League Season 49: Oceania
Nuke 10-13 · Anubis 13-6 · Split
24
Under 28 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24
6/8 hit at 28
Online
30.6
4/12 hit at 28
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Forleks is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: across ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.88
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.9%
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
28
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 26-30
All players · Kills
46.9%571 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: Forleks is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.5 kills vs line 28.0 (4/10 over). Next: vs Rooster, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.5 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 32% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.88 vs line 28 → -1.12 (-4.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 57.4% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.97
HS/Map
7.58
K/D
0.94
ADR
67.7
KAST
69%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
M1 Inferno
21.2r
M2 Mirage
20.6r
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep57.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Under) · avg 26.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28
Line movement
first 28→offno change
- Pulled28Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board28 → 28Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled28Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen28Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
13.6
K/D
0.87
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12.7
K/D
0.84
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
16.7
K/D
0.99
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14
K/D
1.17
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16.7
K/D
1.04
Train
2 maps
Kills
14
K/D
2
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
15.5
K/D
1.35
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
7
K/D
0.44
Cache
1 maps
Kills
7
K/D
0.41
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 7 Cache 8-13 | 9 Inferno 9-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 20 Ancient 13-6 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | KZG | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 5-13 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | FlyQuest | 10 Dust2 4-13 | 12 Inferno 8-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Ground Zero | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 17 Dust2 16-12 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Arcade | 15 Mirage 13-11 | 27 Inferno 19-15 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2025-08-12 | ex-TALON | 10 Train 13-1 | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2025-08-11 | ex-TALON | 19 Mirage 13-0 | 7 Overpass 13-8 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2025-07-15 | Rooster | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 14 Nuke 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2025-07-13 | ex-TALON | 18 Nuke 12-16 | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2025-07-12 | UR | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 21 Dust2 19-17 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2025-07-12 | ex-TALON | 18 Train 13-4 | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2025-07-11 | ex-TALON | 13 Anubis 13-3 | 21 Nuke 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2025-05-04 | Rooster | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2025-05-03 | Housebets | 25 Anubis 19-16 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2025-04-17 | SemperFi | 16 Dust2 10-13 | 21 Nuke 12-16 | 37 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
