CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
38.38
Hit
61.9%
EV+
+15.8%
Edge
+6.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.91
Hit
62.8%
EV+
+17.5%
Edge
+4.4
L10
70%
s1nside
Rifler
s1nside
Team Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle Academy
63%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 20.5
▲ L5 25.6 · L20 23.1
Hit rates at 20.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7.23
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Academy
No meeting with Inner Circle Academy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
23.1
11/20 hit at 20.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm S1nside is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 23
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 54.5%
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 21+ HS (~32 kills at 64.9% HS): 0.639 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (43.5%) or blowout (16.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.91
Raw edge
+4.4
Cons. hit
62.8%
EV+
+17.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.4
Line
20.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.8%
0 →
Learned
62.8%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 18.5-22.5
All players · Headshots
50.6%83 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 49.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 55% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.6 headshots vs line 20.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.79, HS 65%. Next: vs Inner Circle Academy, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 24.6 against a 20.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    ALIGNED
    The call
    SMALL EDGE ONLY
    Value
    VALUE
    • • Model 24.91 vs line 20.5 → +4.41 (21.5%)
    • • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
    • • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    • • Expected 49.4 rounds · 2-0 43.5% · OT 16.7%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    17.82
    HS/Map
    11.57
    K/D
    1.2
    KPR
    0.79
    ADR
    82.7
    KAST
    76.2%
    HS%
    64.9%
    Multi-kill
    20.8%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Ancient)12.2 · KPR 0.785 · 23.8r
    Map 2 (Anubis)12.7 · KPR 0.76 · 25.6r
    Required KPR to clear0.639
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)38.14
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.64%
    Final projected kills38.38
    × realistic HS% (64.9%)24.91
    Inner Circle Academy gives up (83 series)-3.7% vs norm
    Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 20.5. Model: 71.3% before the safety haircut.
    9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445line 20.5
    Lopsided maps16.9%
    ~21 HS · 42r50%
    Normal43.9%
    ~24 HS · 47r67.3%
    Close maps22.5%
    ~27 HS · 53r81.2%
    Overtime16.7%
    ~30 HS · 59r90.5%
    Match context
    Oct 23, 6:00 AM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
    HLTV #1VRS #3HLTV #30VRS #28
    Team Spirit Academy 55%45% Inner Circle Academy
    Win chance source: Polymarket 54.5%
    Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 55% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
    M1 Ancient
    23.8r
    +3% KPR here
    M2 Anubis
    25.6r
    Total
    49.4r
    2-0 sweep43.5%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
    Overtime16.7%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.9%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Ancient / Anubis

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 20.5 (Over) · avg 24.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
    20.5
    Nearby lines
    18.5 Over65.6%
    19.5 Over64.8%
    20.5 Over62.8%OFFERED
    21.5 Over59.7%
    22.5 Over55.3%
    Break-even per leg: 53.5%
    Becomes a PASS at: 23
    Line movement
    first 19.5→offno change
    1. Pulled21.5
      Oct 23, 06:12 AM
    2. Moved up20.5 → 21.5
      Oct 23, 12:34 AM
    3. Moved up19.5 → 20.5
      Oct 22, 03:14 PM
    4. First seen19.5
      Oct 22, 12:02 PM
    Map stats
    Nuke
    12 maps
    Kills
    15.8
    KPR
    0.73
    HS%
    60.8%
    K/D
    1.11
    Mirage
    11 maps
    Kills
    18
    KPR
    0.74
    HS%
    69.2%
    K/D
    1.14
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    19.3
    KPR
    0.82
    HS%
    66.4%
    K/D
    1.35
    Cache
    6 maps
    Kills
    20.5
    KPR
    0.87
    HS%
    61%
    K/D
    1.34
    Anubis
    3 maps
    Kills
    21.7
    KPR
    0.78
    HS%
    72.3%
    K/D
    1.14
    Dust2
    2 maps
    Kills
    11
    KPR
    0.69
    HS%
    54.5%
    K/D
    1.57
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-22GenOne14 Anubis 9-1314 Nuke 13-1128SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-21Lavked24 Ancient 18-2216 Mirage 16-1440SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-19Betclic7 Nuke 13-99 Mirage 10-1316SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-18mellren10 Nuke 13-914 Mirage 10-1324SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-15The Last Resort10 Ancient 13-710 Anubis 13-620WUnder ✗
    2026-10-13BAKS14 Cache 11-131 Nuke 6-1315LUnder ✗
    2026-10-04FORZE Reload14 Mirage 8-137 Ancient 13-821SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-04mellren15 Nuke 13-1113 Mirage 13-1128WOver ✓
    2026-10-03Fire Flux9 Nuke 13-623 Anubis 20-2232SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-02MAYBE9 Cache 13-913 Nuke 13-1122WOver ✓
    2026-10-01mellren15 Nuke 13-1012 Mirage 5-1327SplitOver ✓BO
    2026-09-29Phantom Academy13 Mirage 13-618 Cache 16-1331WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-27megoshort11 Ancient 5-139 Mirage 11-1320LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-26MAYBE16 Mirage 16-1415 Ancient 13-831WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-24Phantom Academy10 Ancient 13-89 Nuke 13-519WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-23Leo13 Cache 10-134 Nuke 1-1317LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-21Azuolas9 Nuke 16-128 Dust2 13-517WUnder ✗OTBO
    2026-09-19Just Players9 Nuke 10-138 Mirage 14-1617LUnder ✗OT
    2026-09-17Nexus4 Dust2 13-19 Cache 13-813WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-15BAKS13 Mirage 11-1312 Cache 13-925SplitOver ✓
    CS2 Lab is 21+

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