KillsBetter playLean
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.53
Hit
57.9%
EV+
+0.2%
Edge
+2.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.45
Hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.3%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
Zesta
NEXVOID vs Off Chops
LEAN · OVER 29
PP29
▼ L5 29.0 · L20 30.4
Hit rates at 29 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.07
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 45 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 19-17 · Inferno 13-9 · W
45
Over 29 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.6
7/13 hit at 29
Online
30.1
4/7 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zesta is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.668 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.5%) or blowout (23.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.53
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
57.9%
EV+
+0.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
29
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.9%
0 →
Learned
57.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 27-31
All players · Kills
56.4%470 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 29.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 58%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.53 vs line 29 → +2.53 (8.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 58.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.22
HS/Map
8.9
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.72
ADR
76.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
58.5%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)16.4 · KPR 0.735 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)15.1 · KPR 0.72 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.668
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.58
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills31.53
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29. Model: 64% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~27 kills · 37r28.7%
Normal54.4%
~32 kills · 44r63.1%
Close maps10.3%
~34 kills · 46r73.9%
Overtime12.2%
~38 kills · 52r90.1%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
22.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21r
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep58.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 16 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Over | 63% | |
| 28 Over | 61.4% | |
| 29 Over | 57.9% | OFFERED |
| 30 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 49.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
57.5%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.4%
K/D
1.26
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
52.8%
K/D
0.98
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.78
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.56
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 21 Ancient 11-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 24 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 17 Cache 13-10 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 29 Dust2 19-17 | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 28 Ancient 16-14 | 8 Dust2 2-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 15 Cache 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Ancient 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 17 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Inferno 12-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 20 Nuke 22-20 | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 24 Ancient 14-16 | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 25 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 9 Cache 7-13 | 19 Inferno 13-4 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ |
