KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.94
Hit
52.6%
EV+
-1.7%
Edge
+0.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.15
Hit
40.7%
EV+
-23.9%
Edge
-1.4
L10
40%
Rifler
Nertz
G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 30.5
BEST OVER · UD 30.5PP31UD30.5
≈ L5 32.0 · L20 31.5Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Low
±4.61
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
0/2 hit · avg 23.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
25
Under 30.5 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
22
Under 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.9
10/19 hit at 30.5
Online
23
0/1 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Nertz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.73 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.1%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.94
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
52.6%
EV+
-1.7%
Rating
3.1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.6%
0 →
Learned
52.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
54.2%360 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 41.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 25% (under 40%) · team 43% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.5 kills vs line 30.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 52%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.5 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.94 vs line 30.5 → +0.44 (1.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.1% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.75
HS/Map
8.22
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.77
ADR
89.2
KAST
74.7%
HS%
52.2%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)16 · KPR 0.762 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)15 · KPR 0.72 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.73
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills30.94
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 50.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~26 kills · 35r19.1%
Normal48.8%
~31 kills · 42r51.7%
Close maps12.3%
~33 kills · 45r66.2%
Overtime14.4%
~38 kills · 51r87.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 43% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
-1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
-6% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 32.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 61.5% | |
| 29.5 Over | 57.6% | |
| 30.5 Over | 52.6% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 49% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 45.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
59%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.63
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.8
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.22
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
47%
K/D
1.04
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.25
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 18 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-1 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 16 Cache 7-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 20 Mirage 10-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 28 Anubis 16-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 21 Ancient 16-14 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 18 Ancient 13-8 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 15 Cache 8-13 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 28 Mirage 19-17 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 16 Anubis 7-13 | 18 Inferno 19-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Cache 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 22 Inferno 13-5 | 20 Anubis 16-12 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 3-13 | 12 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 19 Cache 13-5 | 30 Ancient 13-16 | 49 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 12 Anubis 6-13 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
