CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.71
Hit
57.7%
EV+
+7.9%
Edge
-2.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.67
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+11.2%
Edge
-1.8
L10
60%
brutmonster
AWPer
brutmonster
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC
60%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · UNDER 11.5
≈ L5 10.4 · L20 10.4
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.58
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
10.4
12/19 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm brutmonster is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 34.9% HS): below 0.796 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.67
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
59.5%
EV+
+11.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
11.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.5%
0 →
Learned
59.5%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
46.4%194 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 41.4 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.3 headshots vs line 11.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 35%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 10.3 against a 11.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
  • • Model 9.67 vs line 11.5 → -1.83 (-15.9%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.69
ADR
71.3
KAST
74.1%
HS%
34.9%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)5 · KPR 0.663 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Mirage)4.7 · KPR 0.685 · 19.8r
Required KPR to clear0.796
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.88
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.64%
Final projected kills27.71
× realistic HS% (34.9%)9.67
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 71.5% before the safety haircut.
23456789101112131415161718192021line 11.5
Lopsided maps20%
~8 HS · 35r85.7%
Normal43.5%
~10 HS · 41r72.3%
Close maps30.9%
~10 HS · 44r65%
Overtime5.6%
~12 HS · 50r50%
Match context
Oct 23, 3:00 AM CTOnline
HLTV #67VRS #75HLTV #70VRS #93
ex-Zero Tenacity ex-RUSTEC
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
21.6r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.8r
-1% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 10.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
9.5 Under44.4%below BE
10.5 Under54.7%
11.5 Under59.5%OFFERED
12.5 Under63.4%
13.5 Under65.4%
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→offno change
  1. Pulled11.5
    Oct 23, 03:17 AM
  2. First seen11.5
    Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
42.6%
K/D
1.06
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
29.7%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
29.9%
K/D
1.32
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
34.2%
K/D
1
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
41.7%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-20FOKUS5 Cache 13-165 Nuke 7-1310LUnder ✓OT
2026-10-20FORZE Reload8 Dust2 13-106 Cache 11-1314SplitOver ✗
2026-10-19Bushido Wildcats4 Mirage 13-76 Inferno 13-110WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-16UNiTY3 Mirage 6-132 Cache 11-135LUnder ✓
2026-10-15Just Players5 Mirage 13-78 Cache 13-413WOver ✗BO
2026-10-08Acend6 Cache 13-1011 Inferno 11-1317SplitOver ✗
2026-10-06MASONIC4 Nuke 9-133 Dust2 13-27SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-10-05Leo5 Nuke 10-137 Dust2 13-1112SplitOver ✗
2026-10-02Butterfly5 Inferno 13-111 Mirage 13-26WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-01EAC2 Inferno 13-77 Mirage 7-139SplitUnder ✓
2026-09-28Black Phoenix6 Dust2 13-118 Cache 13-1114WOver ✗
2026-09-25Illyrians4 Mirage 7-138 Cache 13-212SplitOver ✗BO
2026-09-25Nuclear TigeRES2 Inferno 13-73 Dust2 14-165SplitUnder ✓OT
2026-09-24BIG Academy9 Cache 13-52 Dust2 13-611WUnder ✓BO
2026-09-23STATE7 Inferno 13-94 Nuke 10-1311SplitUnder ✓
2026-09-22Black Phoenix5 Anubis 13-87 Dust2 13-1012WOver ✗
2026-09-21INOX Division3 Cache 13-87 Nuke 13-1110WUnder ✓
2026-09-16Teletubisie8 Dust2 10-131 Mirage 5-139LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-13UNiTY5 Cache 8-136 Mirage 13-611SplitUnder ✓
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