KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.99
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.4%
Edge
-0.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.63
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.0%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%
Rifler
SkulL
Rooster vs Abyssal
RISK · UNDER 14.5
▼ L5 11.2 · L20 13.3LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
1/1 hit · avg 7 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 2-13 · Dust2 6-13 · L
7
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11
4/6 hit at 14.5
Online
14.3
7/14 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm SkulL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.63
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.0%
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
45.4%544 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.6 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.6 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- 37% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.63 vs line 14.5 → -0.87 (-6.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
6.65
K/D
0.94
ADR
83.8
KAST
70.4%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.5%
M1 Inferno
21r
M2 Mirage
19.9r
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- Moved down14.5 → 13.5Oct 26, 07:12 PM
- Moved up13.5 → 14.5Oct 26, 07:10 PM
- Moved down14.5 → 13.5Oct 26, 07:10 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
13.4
K/D
1.04
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12.9
K/D
0.77
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13
K/D
0.9
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.6
K/D
1
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.2
K/D
1.06
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
13.3
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Off Chops | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 4 Cache 2-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 3 Anubis 1-13 | 2 Inferno 6-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 9 Cache 19-17 | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 3 Cache 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | LFO 8 | 9 Cache 13-8 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Ground Zero | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | FlyQuest | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Mindfreak | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Cache 13-1 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Arcade | 3 Nuke 13-7 | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 9 Dust2 12-16 | 14 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Ground Zero | 5 Anubis 4-13 | 9 Nuke 15-19 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | MARKandLARRY | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-11 | Mindfreak | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 1 Mirage 2-13 | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | FURY | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-03 | Finishers | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 6 Anubis 13-0 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Inferno 14-16 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Nuke 0-13 | 4 Anubis 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
