KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.24
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Edge
-2.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.74
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Edge
-0.8
L10
40%
AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs Team Liquid
LEAN · UNDER 28.5
BEST UNDER · PP 29.5PP29.5UD28.5SL28.5
▼ L5 28.0 · L20 29.9LAN UNDER · 44% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.64
Previous meeting · vs Team Liquid
No meeting with Team Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.9
8/20 hit at 28.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 83.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.718 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.24
Raw edge
-2.3
Cons. hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
43.7%
0 →
Learned
43.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
45.4%496 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 2.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
- Under risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 84% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 2.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.5 kills vs line 28.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 33%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.5 against a 28.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.24 vs line 28.5 → -2.26 (-7.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 60.3% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.95
HS/Map
4.97
K/D
1.24
KPR
0.66
ADR
66.6
KAST
78.5%
HS%
33.3%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)13.5 · KPR 0.672 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)12.8 · KPR 0.664 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.718
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.08%
Final projected kills26.24
Team Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 63.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.5%
~22 kills · 33r88.6%
Normal38.8%
~28 kills · 42r57.1%
Close maps16.7%
~28 kills · 43r54.5%
Overtime10%
~32 kills · 49r29.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 83.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-2% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep60.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 28.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 36.7% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 40.3% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 43.7% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 49.1% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 54% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
29.9%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.19
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.61
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.76
HS%
35.6%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
41%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.3%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 6 Cache 8-13 | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 25 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 16 Inferno 13-6 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 18 Cache 13-4 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 21 Mirage 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 13 Cache 8-13 | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 15 Cache 10-13 | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 10 Cache 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 6 Ancient 13-4 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 14 Cache 13-4 | 22 Nuke 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 15 Dust2 13-16 | 16 Ancient 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 36 Ancient 19-22 | 48 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 17 Ancient 6-13 | 20 Nuke 16-12 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-01 | Astralis | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 20 Mirage 13-9 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ |
