CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.65
Hit
59%
EV+
+2.2%
Edge
+2.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.49
Hit
58%
EV+
+0.5%
Edge
+1.0
L10
50%
ztr
Rifler · IGL
ztr
FOKUS vs ex-6666
58%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 12.5
≈ L5 14.2 · L20 13.7Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
8/15
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.04
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
1/1 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
15
Over 12.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.3
2/4 hit at 12.5
Online · this match
13.5
6/11 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm ztr is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~27 kills at 48.2% HS): 0.58 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.6%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.49
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
58%
EV+
+0.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58%
+0.7 →
Learned
58.7%
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
56%243 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
  • L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
  • L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 53.3% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 53.3% at this line
Game script fits · 44.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.5) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.9 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 48%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 13.9 against a 12.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
  • • Model 13.49 vs line 12.5 → +0.99 (7.9%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 52.6% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
14.17
HS/Map
6.83
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.62
ADR
73.2
KAST
72.6%
HS%
48.2%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)6.6 · KPR 0.597 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.9 · KPR 0.653 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.58
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills28.02
× realistic HS% (48.2%)13.49
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 55% before the safety haircut.
345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728line 12.5
Lopsided maps20%
~11 HS · 38r35%
Normal51.6%
~13 HS · 44r56.2%
Close maps12.7%
~14 HS · 48r67.8%
Overtime15.7%
~16 HS · 54r81.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
HLTV #49VRS #53HLTV #72VRS #115
FOKUS ex-6666
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.9r
+5% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep52.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 13.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
10.5 Over67.1%
11.5 Over63.3%
12.5 Over58%OFFERED
13.5 Over51.8%below BE
14.5 Over45.6%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
  1. Pulled12.5
    Oct 24, 08:00 AM
  2. First seen12.5
    Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
50.6%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.66
HS%
48%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.84
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.8
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-24ex-66666 Ancient 13-39 Nuke 16-1315WOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-21UNiTY5 Mirage 8-136 Cache 13-711SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-20ex-Zero Tenacity4 Cache 16-136 Nuke 13-710WUnder ✗OT
2026-10-02BBL15 Nuke 13-54 Cache 4-1319SplitOver ✓BO
2026-09-28Nemiga7 Dust2 6-139 Mirage 20-2216LOver ✓OT
2026-09-27Iberian Soul3 Anubis 13-117 Cache 13-710WUnder ✗
2026-09-26SPARTA9 Dust2 14-1611 Cache 13-720SplitOver ✓OT
2026-09-21Sangal3 Dust2 13-35 Nuke 11-138SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-21Astralis9 Cache 11-139 Ancient 8-1318LOver ✓
2026-09-21Sashi8 Dust2 13-114 Nuke 13-912WUnder ✗
2026-09-13Sashi9 Dust2 13-116 Nuke 7-1315SplitOver ✓
2026-09-12Leo3 Cache 13-52 Anubis 13-25WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-12Virtus.pro5 Cache 13-117 Mirage 10-1312SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-101win11 Cache 19-177 Anubis 13-1118WOver ✓OT
2026-09-09Ninjas in Pyjamas4 Cache 13-1112 Mirage 13-1016WOver ✓
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