CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.6
Hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.1%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
Loading…
KaiR0N
Rifler
KaiR0N
Nemiga Gaming vs Legacy
46%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 30.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP30.5UD30.5
▼ L5 30.8 · L20 35.1Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.6
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.8
2/4 hit at 30.5
Online
36
11/16 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm KaiR0N- is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.714 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57%) or blowout (27.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.6
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.6%
+5.8 →
Learned
51.4%
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
56.6%219 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
  • Blowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.94) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.3 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 59%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 33.3 against a 30.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 31.6 vs line 30.5 → +1.1 (3.6%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
  • • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.57
HS/Map
10.32
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.73
ADR
76.6
KAST
72.3%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.6 · KPR 0.713 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)18.3 · KPR 0.781 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.714
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills31.94
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 55.7% before the safety haircut.
141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152line 30.5
Lopsided maps27.8%
~27 kills · 36r24.6%
Normal49.7%
~32 kills · 43r57%
Close maps5.8%
~34 kills · 46r67.6%
Overtime16.7%
~38 kills · 52r86.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
HLTV #24VRS #21HLTV #7VRS #7
Nemiga Gaming 32%68% Legacy
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
+14% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 33.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
28.5 Over53.6%below BE
29.5 Over50.6%below BE
30.5 Over45.6%OFFERED
31.5 Over42.4%below BE
32.5 Over39.3%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
  1. First seen30.5
    Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
22.1
KPR
0.87
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.16
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.82
HS%
67.6%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
65.2%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-10Iberian Soul9 Cache 7-1318 Nuke 16-1327SplitUnder ✗OT
2026-10-08Lavked16 Anubis 13-519 Dust2 13-435WOver ✓BO
2026-10-04Astralis14 Mirage 6-1314 Ancient 13-1028SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-03Luminosity23 Cache 13-1116 Dust2 16-1339WOver ✓OT
2026-10-02Alliance8 Cache 13-617 Ancient 13-825WUnder ✗
2026-10-01FaZe20 Mirage 16-1215 Ancient 13-1135WOver ✓OT
2026-09-28BET-M13 Anubis 13-1014 Nuke 13-627WUnder ✗
2026-09-28FOKUS19 Dust2 13-633 Mirage 22-2052WOver ✓OT
2026-09-27Color14 Cache 13-516 Dust2 9-1330SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-26Black Phoenix16 Cache 13-919 Dust2 9-1335SplitOver ✓
2026-09-25INOX Division16 Nuke 13-217 Ancient 13-1033WOver ✓BO
2026-09-24Just Players17 Mirage 13-918 Cache 13-635WOver ✓
2026-09-14Metizport30 Mirage 16-1418 Nuke 13-848WOver ✓OT
2026-09-13SINNERS19 Cache 13-1026 Mirage 13-1045WOver ✓
2026-09-12Just Players14 Ancient 13-619 Cache 13-333WOver ✓BO
2026-09-10K2713 Anubis 10-1317 Mirage 13-930SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-09HOTU12 Ancient 3-1311 Cache 13-423SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-08Color21 Dust2 16-1326 Anubis 13-647WOver ✓OT
2026-09-06FOKUS24 Mirage 16-1420 Ancient 13-344WOver ✓OTBO
2026-09-05Nemesis18 Mirage 13-114 Ancient 13-732WOver ✓BO
KILLS · HEADSHOTS · MAPS 1-2

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