KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.31
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-5.5%
Edge
-2.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.37
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.7%
Edge
-2.1
L10
30%
Rifler
jottAAA
Eternal Fire vs Team Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 32.5
BEST UNDER · PP 33.5PP33.5UD32.5
≈ L5 35.8 · L20 35.5LAN UNDER · 52% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 32.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
41%
7/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Team Nemesis
No meeting with Team Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
35.6
6/14 hit at 32.5
Online
35.3
1/3 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jottAAA is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 88.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.31
Raw edge
-2.2
Cons. hit
48.1%
EV+
-5.5%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
53.4%296 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 37.1 kills vs line 31.5 (7/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 37.1 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.31 vs line 32.5 → -2.19 (-6.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
17.76
HS/Map
10.18
K/D
1.13
ADR
84.1
KAST
73.3%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Team Nemesis gives up (35 series)-12.2% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Under) · avg 37.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Line movement
first 31.5→32.5+1
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 27, 09:26 PM
- First seen31.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.7
K/D
1.15
Cache
8 maps
Kills
15.1
K/D
1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
19.4
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
21.5
K/D
1.28
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
18.7
K/D
1.37
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
18.3
K/D
0.95
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 23 Mirage 10-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 15 Cache 16-12 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 24 Ancient 22-20 | 17 Inferno 7-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 21 Mirage 13-10 | 22 Cache 14-16 | 43 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 32 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 17 Cache 13-1 | 33 Dust2 22-20 | 50 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Dust2 4-13 | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 27 Dust2 19-15 | 22 Mirage 11-13 | 49 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 17 Mirage 12-16 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 15 Anubis 7-13 | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 13 Cache 13-6 | 26 Anubis 19-17 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 7 Cache 4-13 | 31 Anubis 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 21 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 2-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
