HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.74
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Edge
-0.8
L10
40%
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AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs Team Liquid
RISK · UNDER 9.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10PP10UD9.5SL9.5
≈ L5 9.8 · L20 9.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.2
Previous meeting · vs Team Liquid
No meeting with Team Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.9
8/20 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 83.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 33.3% HS): below 0.719 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.74
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.7%
0 →
Learned
43.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
50.7%140 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 84% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.6 headshots vs line 9.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 33%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.6 against a 9.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.74 vs line 9.5 → -0.76 (-8.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 60.3% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.95
HS/Map
4.97
K/D
1.24
KPR
0.66
ADR
66.6
KAST
78.5%
HS%
33.3%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)4.5 · KPR 0.672 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)4.2 · KPR 0.664 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.719
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.08%
Final projected kills26.24
× realistic HS% (33.3%)8.74
Team Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 59.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.5%
~7 HS · 33r79%
Normal38.8%
~9 HS · 42r55.9%
Close maps16.7%
~9 HS · 43r54.3%
Overtime10%
~11 HS · 49r38.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 83.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-2% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep60.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 27% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 34.3% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 43.7% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 54.5% | |
| 11.5 Under | 59.4% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
29.9%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.19
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.61
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.76
HS%
35.6%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
41%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.3%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 2 Cache 8-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 1 Mirage 13-11 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-4 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-6 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 1 Cache 8-13 | 3 Mirage 19-16 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 10-13 | 4 Inferno 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 4 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Mirage 13-7 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 3 Ancient 13-4 | 2 Mirage 13-5 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 3 Dust2 13-16 | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 14 Ancient 19-22 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Nuke 16-12 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-01 | Astralis | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ |
