KillsPlayable
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.97
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+12.8%
Edge
+3.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.31
Hit
63.1%
EV+
+18.1%
Edge
+2.8
L10
70%
Rifler
foggers
Rooster vs Team Abyssal
PLAYABLE · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
▼ L5 14.2 · L20 15.7
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
43%
3/7
Volatility
Medium
±5.16
Previous meeting · vs Team Abyssal
3/7 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Oceania - Cup 2
Mirage 11-13 · Inferno 15-19 · L
13
Under 14.5 ✗
2026-08-13 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Ancient 1-13 · Anubis 8-13 · L
6
Under 14.5 ✗
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 13-2 · Dust2 13-6 · W
17
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.5
0/2 hit at 14.5
Online
16.2
10/17 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm foggers is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 46.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.9% HS): 0.58 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (60.8%) or blowout (25.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.31
Raw edge
+2.8
Cons. hit
63.1%
EV+
+18.1%
Rating
8.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
63.1%
0 →
Learned
63.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
59.2%414 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · 44.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 47% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.7 headshots vs line 14.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 56%. Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.7 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 17.31 vs line 14.5 → +2.81 (19.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 60.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.74
ADR
79.6
KAST
75.5%
HS%
55.9%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.9 · KPR 0.687 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)9.4 · KPR 0.708 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.58
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.77%
Final projected kills30.97
× realistic HS% (55.9%)17.31
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 70.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.8%
~15 HS · 38r47.8%
Normal50.7%
~18 HS · 46r74%
Close maps15.7%
~19 HS · 48r78.4%
Overtime7.8%
~21 HS · 54r89.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 46.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 47% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
20.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Inferno
23.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep60.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 8 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 16 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 17.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 66.4% | |
| 13.5 Over | 65.2% | |
| 14.5 Over | 63.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 59.5% | |
| 16.5 Over | 55.8% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 26, 10:40 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
63.5%
K/D
0.8
Cache
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.79
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.17
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.82
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
61.9%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
34.8%
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 7 Cache 7-13 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | LFO 8 | 7 Cache 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Abyssal | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Inferno 15-19 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | MARKandLARRY | 8 Cache 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Fruju | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 15 Cache 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 12 Dust2 16-12 | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | MARKandLARRY | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 2 Ancient 1-13 | 4 Anubis 8-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 7 Mirage 13-2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | Abyssal | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Inferno 16-14 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | Ground Zero | 3 Mirage 0-13 | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Arcade | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Abyssal | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Mirage 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | MARKandLARRY | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 9 Overpass 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Abyssal | 4 Overpass 13-6 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-08 | Abyssal | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
