KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.79
Hit
46.3%
EV+
-19.8%
Edge
-1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.45
Hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.5%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
Rifler
MiQ
NEXVOID vs Off Chops
RISK · UNDER 29
PP29
≈ L5 29.0 · L20 29.4Risk · Edge -1.2 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±6.07
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 34 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 19-17 · Inferno 13-9 · W
34
Over 29 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.7
7/13 hit at 29
Online
30.7
3/7 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MiQ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.676 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.79
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
46.3%
EV+
-19.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.3%
0 →
Learned
46.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
43.6%470 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 42.9 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.7 kills vs line 29.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 52%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.7 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.79 vs line 29 → -1.21 (-4.2%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.7
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.67
ADR
76
KAST
72.7%
HS%
52%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.9 · KPR 0.691 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.9 · KPR 0.608 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.676
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.88
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.32%
Final projected kills27.79
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 57.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.5%
~23 kills · 36r85.1%
Normal51.8%
~28 kills · 43r55.9%
Close maps16.7%
~30 kills · 46r42.5%
Overtime10%
~34 kills · 52r19.7%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
21.6r
+3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.3r
-9% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 16 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 28.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 34.5% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 38.4% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 46.3% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 54% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 57.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
52.4%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.2%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
41%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.82
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.2
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.87
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 23 Anubis 13-8 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 17 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Ancient 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 5 Inferno 1-13 | 12 Cache 13-10 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 12 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Inferno 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 20 Dust2 19-17 | 14 Inferno 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 19 Ancient 16-14 | 10 Dust2 2-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 15 Cache 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 19 Ancient 7-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 20 Inferno 12-16 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 23 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 24 Nuke 22-20 | 20 Ancient 13-11 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 18 Nuke 11-13 | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | FlyQuest | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 13 Anubis 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
