CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.66
Hit
39.2%
EV+
-32.1%
Edge
+0.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.74
Hit
52.2%
EV+
-9.5%
Edge
-0.8
L10
60%
viridian
Rifler
viridian
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
52%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 11.5
PP11.5
▲ L5 11.4 · L20 10.4Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.29
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
13
Over 11.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.6
3/7 hit at 11.5
Online
9.8
8/13 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm viridian is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 47.4% HS): below 0.554 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.74
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
52.2%
EV+
-9.5%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
43.8
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.2%
0 →
Learned
52.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
47.1%240 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 43.8 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.5 headshots vs line 11.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 47%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 10.5 against a 11.5 line

Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 10.74 vs line 11.5 → -0.76 (-6.6%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 43.8 rounds · 2-0 56.2% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.97
HS/Map
5.2
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.51
ADR
61.1
KAST
71.8%
HS%
47.4%
Multi-kill
9.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)4.6 · KPR 0.472 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.1 · KPR 0.571 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.554
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.95
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills22.66
× realistic HS% (47.4%)10.74
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
23456789101112131415161718192021line 11.5
Lopsided maps29.1%
~9 HS · 37r79.6%
Normal48.4%
~11 HS · 46r55%
Close maps16.9%
~12 HS · 47r52.2%
Overtime5.6%
~13 HS · 53r36.2%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #131VRS #122HLTV #77VRS #72
Off Chops NEXVOID
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.8r
-7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23r
+13% KPR here
Total
43.8r
2-0 sweep56.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.1%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 10.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
9.5 Under34%below BE
10.5 Under43%below BE
11.5 Under52.2%OFFERED
12.5 Under59.8%
13.5 Under64%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
  1. First seen11.5
    Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.46
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.75
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.59
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.98
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
39.6%
K/D
0.86
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.45
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.6
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
7.3
KPR
0.44
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.59
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.9
Cache
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.4
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-26Alter Ego7 Inferno 11-135 Ancient 3-1312LOver ✗BO
2026-10-26Ground Zero7 Dust2 13-83 Anubis 13-710WUnder ✓
2026-10-18NEXVOID6 Dust2 17-197 Inferno 9-1313LOver ✗OT
2026-10-17Rooster5 Nuke 13-72 Cache 13-27WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-16Abyssal10 Dust2 13-75 Inferno 13-315WOver ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero4 Dust2 13-65 Anubis 11-139SplitUnder ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest5 Dust2 10-1310 Inferno 16-1915LOver ✗OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest2 Inferno 4-137 Dust2 9-139LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER3 Inferno 13-88 Dust2 13-911WUnder ✓
2026-09-27FlyQuest1 Inferno 2-133 Ancient 4-134LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Ancient 13-45 Dust2 13-39WUnder ✓BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER9 Nuke 13-77 Inferno 13-716WOver ✗
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Dust2 13-83 Inferno 13-18WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER3 Nuke 13-53 Inferno 11-136SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER7 Inferno 13-86 Anubis 13-513WOver ✗BO
2026-02-08THUNDER dOWNUNDER7 Overpass 6-132 Nuke 10-139LUnder ✓
2026-02-08Mindfreak8 Overpass 13-114 Nuke 11-1312SplitOver ✗
2026-02-07Underground10 Nuke 9-135 Overpass 13-1015SplitOver ✗
2026-02-07Mindfreak1 Anubis 3-132 Nuke 4-133LUnder ✓BO
2026-01-31Rooster3 Nuke 3-139 Dust2 13-912SplitOver ✗BO
CS2 Lab is 21+

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