KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.55
Hit
60.9%
EV+
+5.4%
Edge
+3.0
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.83
Hit
56%
EV+
-3.0%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
Rifler
Xant3r
Nemiga vs DENDELE
PLAYABLE · OVER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5
≈ L5 32.2 · L20 31.8
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.86
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.3
5/7 hit at 28.5
Online
31.5
8/13 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Xant3r is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 58.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.608 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.1%) or blowout (22.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.55
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
60.9%
EV+
+5.4%
Rating
7.9/10
Exp. rounds
46.9
Line
28.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
60.9%
0 →
Learned
60.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
54.6%496 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 46.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%) · team 60% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.3 kills vs line 28.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 57%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.3 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.55 vs line 28.5 → +3.05 (10.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.9 rounds · 2-0 56.1% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.69
ADR
77.8
KAST
70.4%
HS%
56.5%
Multi-kill
19.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)17.3 · KPR 0.666 · 25.9r
Map 2 (Cache)14.3 · KPR 0.677 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.608
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills31.55
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 65.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.8%
~27 kills · 39r35.9%
Normal50.5%
~31 kills · 47r64.2%
Close maps10%
~34 kills · 50r76%
Overtime16.7%
~38 kills · 56r89.3%
Match context
Oct 27, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
25.9r
M2 Cache
21r
+2% KPR here
Total
46.9r
2-0 sweep56.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 32.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 27.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 28.5 Over | 60.9% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 57.2% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 52.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
52%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
50%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
10.6
KPR
0.55
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Aurora | 24 Mirage 14-16 | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-25 | BetBoom | 3 Anubis 3-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 26 Ancient 25-23 | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 16 Cache 7-13 | 22 Nuke 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 23 Cache 13-11 | 18 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 13 Cache 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 26 Mirage 16-12 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 26 Mirage 22-20 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 13 Cache 13-5 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 12 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 15 Nuke 13-2 | 28 Ancient 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Cache 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 8 Cache 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 20 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 15 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
