KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.87
Hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.1%
Edge
+1.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.02
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-10.9%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
latto
Legacy vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 17.5
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP17.5UD16.5
▲ L5 19.6 · L20 17.9Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.58
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.9
9/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm latto is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~34 kills at 53.2% HS): 0.723 KPR over ~46 rounds. His Kills line is 32: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.8%) or blowout (25.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.02
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
51.4%
EV+
-10.9%
Rating
1.8/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.4%
0 →
Learned
51.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
58.1%272 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 45.5 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 70% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 53%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.02 vs line 17.5 → +0.52 (3.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 55.8% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.77
HS/Map
8.93
K/D
1.2
KPR
0.73
ADR
81.1
KAST
74.2%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)9.9 · KPR 0.77 · 24.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.1 · KPR 0.722 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.723
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.42%
Final projected kills33.87
× realistic HS% (53.2%)18.02
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 50.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.5%
~15 HS · 38r29.2%
Normal43.7%
~18 HS · 46r52.4%
Close maps18.6%
~19 HS · 49r60.9%
Overtime12.2%
~22 HS · 55r75.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 69.5% · live
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 70% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
24.3r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.2r
-1% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep55.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 61.8% | |
| 16.5 Over | 55.6% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 51.4% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 45.2% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 41.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.36
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.75
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.28
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.34
Cache
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
43.2%
K/D
0.79
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.8%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | DENDELE | 5 Cache 13-9 | 9 Mirage 19-17 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 23 Ancient 23-25 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 10 Nuke 13-16 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-10 | 7 Inferno 5-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 2 Cache 4-13 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✗ |
