KillsNeutral
Line
34
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.43
Hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.2%
Edge
-3.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.05
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.2%
Edge
-1.4
L10
50%
AWPer
chelleos
Rooster vs Abyssal
RISK · UNDER 12.5
▼ L5 9.0 · L20 11.6LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
1/1 hit · avg 8 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 2-13 · Dust2 6-13 · L
8
Under 12.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.5
5/6 hit at 12.5
Online
12.5
6/14 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm chelleos is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.05
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.2%
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
48.4%413 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.1 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.1 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.7 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.7 rounds per map for these teams
- 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.05 vs line 12.5 → -1.45 (-11.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 57.2% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
5.8
K/D
1.2
ADR
86.8
KAST
72.9%
Multi-kill
20.3%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.5%
M1 Inferno
20.9r
M2 Mirage
19.9r
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep57.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 12.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
- Pulled12.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board12.5 → 12.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
15.7
K/D
1.25
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
14.8
K/D
1.05
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13.3
K/D
0.92
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.4
K/D
1.38
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.4
K/D
1.23
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
20.5
K/D
1.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Off Chops | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 1 Cache 2-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 3 Anubis 1-13 | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 5 Cache 19-17 | 1 Mirage 13-4 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 7 Anubis 9-13 | 4 Inferno 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Ground Zero | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | FlyQuest | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 5 Nuke 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Mindfreak | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Cache 13-1 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Arcade | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 4 Dust2 12-16 | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Ground Zero | 9 Anubis 4-13 | 6 Nuke 15-19 | 15 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | MARKandLARRY | 2 Inferno 13-2 | 4 Anubis 13-4 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-11 | Mindfreak | 14 Inferno 9-13 | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | FURY | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-03 | Finishers | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 2 Anubis 13-0 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 10 Inferno 14-16 | 15 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 3 Nuke 0-13 | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Ground Zero | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 8 Anubis 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-17 | DXA | 1 Inferno 1-13 | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
