KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.06
Hit
55.2%
EV+
-4.4%
Edge
-2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.96
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
AWPer
molodoy
FURIA vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 11.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP11.5UD11.5
▼ L5 10.0 · L20 12.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 42% hit
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.34
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12
10/20 hit at 11.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm molodoy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 37.7% HS): below 0.723 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.96
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.2
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.3%
0 →
Learned
48.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
46%189 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 42.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.6 headshots vs line 11.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 38%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 11.6 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.96 vs line 11.5 → -0.54 (-4.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 42.2 rounds · 2-0 58.1% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.93
HS/Map
6
K/D
1.22
KPR
0.74
ADR
75.3
KAST
73.2%
HS%
37.7%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.2 · KPR 0.678 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.7 · KPR 0.711 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.723
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.31
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.86%
Final projected kills29.06
× realistic HS% (37.7%)10.96
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 58.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~9 HS · 35r74.7%
Normal40.9%
~11 HS · 43r56.1%
Close maps20.8%
~12 HS · 45r51.3%
Overtime10%
~13 HS · 51r37.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
20.6r
-2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.2r
2-0 sweep58.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 11.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Under | 35.2% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 42.9% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 48.3% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Under | 55.2% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 60.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
- First seen11.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.27
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.77
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.81
HS%
39.2%
K/D
1.45
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.66
HS%
37.3%
K/D
1.04
Cache
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
35.5%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.8
HS%
40%
K/D
1.35
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.43
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Natus Vincere | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 0 Dust2 5-13 | 3 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 7 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 16-19 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 3 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 4-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 6 Cache 5-13 | 4 Anubis 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 3 Cache 13-8 | 11 Mirage 16-19 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 16 Ancient 14-16 | 2 Dust2 3-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 1 Ancient 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
