KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.42
Hit
32.6%
EV+
-43.5%
Edge
+1.4
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.09
Hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.5%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%
AWPer
khaN
Nemiga vs Legacy
RISK · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5
▲ L5 9.6 · L20 8.3Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.45
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.5
2/4 hit at 9.5
Online
8.3
12/16 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm khaN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~36 kills at 27.5% HS): below 0.809 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.09
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
59.2%
EV+
+2.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.2%
0 →
Learned
59.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
50.7%140 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: khaN is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 42.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 35% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.0 headshots vs line 9.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 28%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.0 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 8.09 vs line 9.5 → -1.41 (-14.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57.1% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
4.17
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.69
ADR
68.1
KAST
74.2%
HS%
27.5%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)3.7 · KPR 0.699 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)4.4 · KPR 0.679 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.809
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.14%
Final projected kills29.42
× realistic HS% (27.5%)8.09
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 71.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~7 HS · 36r84.6%
Normal50.6%
~8 HS · 43r69.5%
Close maps5.8%
~9 HS · 46r63.2%
Overtime16.7%
~10 HS · 52r48.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 7:55 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 35% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
+2% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 35.3% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 47% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 59.2% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 63.4% | |
| 11.5 Under | 66.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- Back on board9.5 → 9.5Oct 24, 04:08 PM
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 07:46 AM
- Back on board9.5 → 9.5Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- First seen9.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
28.2%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
21.5%
K/D
1.18
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
31.9%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
26.8%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
32.9%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
30.6%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 6 Cache 7-13 | 5 Nuke 16-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 5 Cache 13-11 | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 2 Cache 13-6 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 4 Mirage 16-12 | 0 Ancient 13-11 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 1 Nuke 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Mirage 22-20 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 6 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 4 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 4 Nuke 13-2 | 3 Ancient 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 4 Cache 13-6 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 4 Mirage 16-14 | 5 Nuke 13-8 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 6 Cache 13-10 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 1 Cache 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 1 Ancient 3-13 | 3 Cache 13-4 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 1 Dust2 16-13 | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 4 Mirage 16-14 | 3 Ancient 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 1 Mirage 13-1 | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
