Rifler
BUSAN
Hacha Esports vs Isurus Gaming
RISK · OVER 22.5
Risk · Edge +2.1 far below ±3.0 +1STAND-IN? · superex
Hit rates at 22.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.92
Previous meeting · vs Isurus Gaming
No meeting with Isurus Gaming in his last 6 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
24.3
3/6 hit at 22.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm BUSAN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 49.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.523 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (41.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.61
Raw edge
+2.1
Cons. hit
54.3%
EV+
+1.6%
Rating
3.4/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
22.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.3%
0 →
Learned
54.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 20.5-24.5
All players · Kills
54.7%86 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- High form volatility
- Big enough sample: 6 recent series (need 8+)
- Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%)
Sharp checks · 3/5 active
Big enough sample · 6 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/6 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 6 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.3 kills vs line 22.5 (3/6 over). KPR 0.61, HS 58%. Next: vs Isurus Gaming, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 24.3 against a 22.5 line
Biggest risk: 50% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 50% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (6 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 24.61 vs line 22.5 → +2.11 (9.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 8.8%
Performance (last 12 maps)
Kills/Map
12.17
HS/Map
7.08
K/D
0.87
KPR
0.61
ADR
69.2
KAST
68.5%
HS%
58.2%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.5 · KPR 0.634 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.1 · KPR 0.529 · 21.4r
Required KPR to clear0.523
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.01
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.61%
Final projected kills24.61
Isurus Gaming gives up (24 series)+6.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22.5. Model: 57.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.3%
~21 kills · 37r38.2%
Normal24.7%
~27 kills · 47r61.7%
Close maps25.2%
~27 kills · 47r60.8%
Overtime8.8%
~30 kills · 53r72.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 49.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21.6r
+8% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.4r
-10% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)34%
Overtime8.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
6 series · line 22.5 (Over) · avg 24.3 · hit 3/6 · tap a bar
22.5
Nearby lines
| 20.5 Over | 57.2% | |
| 21.5 Over | 55.8% | |
| 22.5 Over | 54.3% | OFFERED |
| 23.5 Over | 52.7% | below BE |
| 24.5 Over | 51% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 22.5
Line movement
first 22.5→offno change
- Pulled22.5Oct 23, 08:12 AM
- First seen22.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
9.3
KPR
0.48
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
60%
K/D
0.78
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.75
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
3
KPR
0.2
HS%
100%
K/D
0.2
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.78
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.4
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | DAMAJUANA | 23 Ancient 13-5 | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | A NATA | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Martians | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Mirage 16-12 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Procyon | 3 Anubis 2-13 | 3 Ancient 2-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-02-27 | Bad Luck | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2025-08-07 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Nuke 13-5 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
