CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.13
Hit
56.4%
EV+
-2.4%
Edge
+1.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.12
Hit
61.4%
EV+
+6.3%
Edge
+1.6
L10
70%
Liazz
Rifler
Liazz
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
61%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 16.5
PP16.5
▲ L5 17.8 · L20 16.9
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.18
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
1/1 hit · avg 22 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
22
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.2
9/12 hit at 16.5
Online
16.4
5/8 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm Liazz is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 53.1% HS): 0.713 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.2%) or blowout (30.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.12
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
61.4%
EV+
+6.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.4%
0 →
Learned
61.4%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
56.5%416 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.6 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 53%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 16.5 line

Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
  • • Model 18.12 vs line 16.5 → +1.62 (9.8%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 58.2% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.31
KPR
0.77
ADR
82.9
KAST
73.1%
HS%
53.1%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.6 · KPR 0.794 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.5 · KPR 0.792 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.27%
Final projected kills34.13
× realistic HS% (53.1%)18.12
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 65.1% before the safety haircut.
7891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132line 16.5
Lopsided maps30.4%
~15 HS · 37r35.9%
Normal51.3%
~19 HS · 46r71.1%
Close maps12.7%
~19 HS · 47r73.1%
Overtime5.6%
~22 HS · 53r87.2%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #131VRS #123HLTV #77VRS #70
Off Chops NEXVOID
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.6r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep58.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.4%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 16.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
14.5 Over65.3%
15.5 Over63.9%
16.5 Over61.4%OFFERED
17.5 Over51.9%below BE
18.5 Over46.2%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
  1. First seen16.5
    Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.8
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.36
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
55.1%
K/D
1.29
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1.31
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.82
HS%
31.7%
K/D
1.08
Cache
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.8
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-26Alter Ego12 Inferno 11-135 Ancient 3-1317LOver ✓BO
2026-10-26Ground Zero11 Dust2 13-89 Anubis 13-720WOver ✓
2026-10-18NEXVOID14 Dust2 17-198 Inferno 9-1322LOver ✓OT
2026-10-17Rooster13 Nuke 13-74 Cache 13-217WOver ✓BO
2026-10-16Abyssal5 Dust2 13-78 Inferno 13-313WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero9 Dust2 13-610 Anubis 11-1319SplitOver ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest4 Dust2 10-1313 Inferno 16-1917LOver ✓OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest3 Inferno 4-138 Dust2 9-1311LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER10 Inferno 13-813 Dust2 13-923WOver ✓
2026-09-27FlyQuest7 Inferno 2-133 Ancient 4-1310LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Ancient 13-413 Dust2 13-318WOver ✓BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER6 Nuke 13-711 Inferno 13-717WOver ✓
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Dust2 13-89 Inferno 13-114WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER9 Nuke 13-59 Inferno 11-1318SplitOver ✓BO
2026-08-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER12 Inferno 13-88 Anubis 13-520WOver ✓BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER12 Dust2 13-810 Anubis 10-1322SplitOver ✓
2026-07-18FlyQuest15 Dust2 10-133 Nuke 1-1318LOver ✓BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Dust2 13-107 Anubis 13-711WUnder ✗
2026-07-17Rooster2 Nuke 13-016 Anubis 13-418WOver ✓BO
2026-06-04THUNDER dOWNUNDER6 Anubis 10-136 Inferno 3-1312LUnder ✗BO
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