KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.64
Hit
46.8%
EV+
-12.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.48
Hit
50.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Edge
+1.0
L10
40%
Rifler
tN1R
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 15.5
BEST OVER · UD 15.5PP16.5UD15.5
▼ L5 13.6 · L20 17.1Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.29
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.1
10/20 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tN1R is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 79.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~28 kills at 57.7% HS): 0.675 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (60.6%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.48
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
50.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.6%
0 →
Learned
50.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
57.6%361 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: tN1R is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 39.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 24% (under 40%) · team 80% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 15.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 58%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 15.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.48 vs line 15.5 → +0.98 (6.3%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 16 real matches) · kill rate +5% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 60.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.1
KAST
71%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.3 · KPR 0.725 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.1 · KPR 0.721 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.675
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.77%
Final projected kills28.56
× realistic HS% (57.7%)16.48
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 56.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~14 HS · 33r31.8%
Normal40.6%
~17 HS · 40r58.7%
Close maps27.2%
~18 HS · 43r67.8%
Overtime7.8%
~20 HS · 49r84.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 16 real matches) · kill rate +5% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.7r
+2% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep60.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 16.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 63.1% | |
| 14.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 50.6% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 45.3% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 40.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.2%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.03
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.54
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
21.7
KPR
0.87
HS%
63.1%
K/D
1.3
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 7 Anubis 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 6 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 15 Anubis 16-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 16 Nuke 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 4 Cache 9-13 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 16 Dust2 19-15 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
