KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.05
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Edge
-1.4
L10
50%
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Rifler · IGL
xertioN
MOUZ vs Team Liquid
RISK · UNDER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5SL29.5
▼ L5 25.8 · L20 30.6Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.75
Previous meeting · vs Team Liquid
No meeting with Team Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.6
9/20 hit at 29.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xertioN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 83.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.743 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.05
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
43.7%
EV+
-18.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.7%
0 →
Learned
43.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
45%500 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 84% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.3 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 53%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.3 against a 29.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.05 vs line 29.5 → -1.45 (-4.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 60.3% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.3
HS/Map
8.18
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.68
ADR
76.4
KAST
72.6%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.9 · KPR 0.743 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)13.1 · KPR 0.685 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.743
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.36
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.08%
Final projected kills28.05
Team Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 59.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.5%
~24 kills · 33r88.1%
Normal38.8%
~30 kills · 42r50.6%
Close maps16.7%
~30 kills · 43r47.6%
Overtime10%
~34 kills · 49r21.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 83.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
+6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-2% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep60.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 29.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 33.4% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 39.6% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 43.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 49.6% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 55.1% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
52%
K/D
1.09
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
51%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.03
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.82
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.1%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 15 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 14 Cache 13-4 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 10 Cache 8-13 | 30 Mirage 19-16 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 19 Cache 10-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 18 Cache 11-13 | 13 Inferno 13-5 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 20 Ancient 13-4 | 17 Mirage 13-5 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 10 Cache 13-4 | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 39 Ancient 19-22 | 58 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 16 Dust2 13-4 | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 16-12 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-01 | Astralis | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ |
