KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.07
Hit
60.8%
EV+
+5.4%
Edge
+3.1
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.44
Hit
59.8%
EV+
+3.5%
Edge
+0.9
L10
90%
Rifler
soulfly
Eternal Fire vs MIBR
PLAYABLE · OVER 28
BEST OVER · PP 28PP28UD28.5SL28.5
▼ L5 31.2 · L20 34.6
Hit rates at 28 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
82%
14/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.71
Previous meeting · vs MIBR
No meeting with MIBR in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
33.9
11/14 hit at 28
Online
38
3/3 hit at 28
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm soulfly is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.656 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50.8%) or blowout (21.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.07
Raw edge
+3.1
Cons. hit
60.8%
EV+
+5.4%
Rating
7.4/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
28
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
60.8%
0 →
Learned
60.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 26-30
All players · Kills
56.3%430 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Near the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 82.4% at this line
Game script fits · 42.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 36% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.7 kills vs line 28.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 53%. Next: vs MIBR, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.7 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.07 vs line 28 → +3.07 (11.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 50.8% · OT 24.4%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
17.29
HS/Map
9.15
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.69
ADR
77
KAST
74.3%
HS%
52.9%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)18 · KPR 0.783 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.1 · KPR 0.648 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.656
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.72
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.15%
Final projected kills31.07
MIBR gives up (90 series)+1.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28. Model: 65.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.4%
~26 kills · 36r31.6%
Normal29.1%
~28 kills · 38r43.7%
Close maps25.1%
~33 kills · 45r75.2%
Overtime24.4%
~37 kills · 51r90.6%
Match context
Oct 27, 1:30 PM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
22.7r
+18% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20r
-3% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep50.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)49.5%
Overtime24.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Over) · avg 33.7 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Over | 63.6% | |
| 27 Over | 62.4% | |
| 28 Over | 60.8% | OFFERED |
| 29 Over | 57.3% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 54.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28→28no change
- Back on board28 → 28Oct 26, 12:12 AM
- Pulled28Oct 26, 12:11 AM
- First seen28Oct 26, 12:11 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.85
HS%
56.4%
K/D
1.29
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
56.6%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.72
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.03
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.67
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.02
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 19 Cache 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 26 Ancient 22-20 | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 20 Cache 14-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 17 Mirage 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 14 Cache 13-1 | 24 Dust2 22-20 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Dust2 4-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 21 Dust2 19-15 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 23 Cache 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 27 Mirage 12-16 | 26 Cache 13-7 | 53 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 26 Dust2 13-8 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 20 Cache 13-6 | 27 Anubis 19-17 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 9 Cache 4-13 | 13 Anubis 16-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 19 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 2-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | WBT | 22 Anubis 13-11 | 28 Cache 16-14 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
