CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.66
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.0%
Edge
+2.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.07
Hit
53.5%
EV+
-7.4%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
Liazz
Rifler
Liazz
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
54%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 17
PP17
▲ L5 17.6 · L20 16.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.08
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
1/1 hit · avg 19 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
19
Over 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.9
5/10 hit at 17
Online
16.4
4/9 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm Liazz is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 73.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~34 kills at 53.2% HS): 0.807 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (66.9%) or blowout (41.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.07
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
53.5%
EV+
-7.4%
Rating
2.1/10
Exp. rounds
39.6
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.5%
-0.3 →
Learned
53.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
58%257 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • Game script fits: blowout 42% (under 40%)
  • Blowout win risk — team 78% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.4% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · blowout 42% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.7 headshots vs line 17.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 53%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 16.7 against a 17.0 line

  • 37% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 18.07 vs line 17 → +1.07 (6.3%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
  • • Expected 39.6 rounds · 2-0 66.9% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.68
HS/Map
8.34
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.8
ADR
84.1
KAST
75.4%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
20.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9.1 · KPR 0.843 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)8.4 · KPR 0.856 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.807
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.37%
Final projected kills32.85
× realistic HS% (53.2%)18.07
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+5.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 51.5% before the safety haircut.
6789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233line 17
Lopsided maps41.9%
~15 HS · 34r28.8%
Normal39%
~20 HS · 43r68.1%
Close maps13.3%
~20 HS · 43r66.7%
Overtime5.8%
~22 HS · 49r84.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #142VRS #134HLTV #143VRS #132
Off Chops 78%22% Ground Zero
Win chance source: Polymarket 78.0% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 78% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
20.7r
-2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
18.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
39.6r
2-0 sweep66.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.9%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 16.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
15 Over64.1%
16 Over59.4%
17 Over53.5%OFFERED
18 Over47.2%below BE
19 Over41.3%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
  1. First seen17
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.9%
K/D
1.28
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.79
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
60.3%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.8
HS%
57%
K/D
1.32
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.82
HS%
28.6%
K/D
1.12
Cache
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.8
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-18NEXVOID14 Dust2 17-198 Inferno 9-1322LOver ✓OT
2026-10-17Rooster13 Nuke 13-74 Cache 13-217WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-16Abyssal5 Dust2 13-78 Inferno 13-313WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero9 Dust2 13-610 Anubis 11-1319SplitOver ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest4 Dust2 10-1313 Inferno 16-1917LUnder ✗OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest3 Inferno 4-138 Dust2 9-1311LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER10 Inferno 13-813 Dust2 13-923WOver ✓
2026-09-27FlyQuest7 Inferno 2-133 Ancient 4-1310LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Ancient 13-413 Dust2 13-318WOver ✓BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER6 Nuke 13-711 Inferno 13-717WUnder ✗
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Dust2 13-89 Inferno 13-114WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER9 Nuke 13-59 Inferno 11-1318SplitOver ✓BO
2026-08-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER12 Inferno 13-88 Anubis 13-520WOver ✓BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER12 Dust2 13-810 Anubis 10-1322SplitOver ✓
2026-07-18FlyQuest15 Dust2 10-133 Nuke 1-1318LOver ✓BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Dust2 13-107 Anubis 13-711WUnder ✗
2026-07-17Rooster2 Nuke 13-016 Anubis 13-418WOver ✓BO
2026-06-04THUNDER dOWNUNDER6 Anubis 10-136 Inferno 3-1312LUnder ✗BO
2026-05-27SemperFi6 Dust2 9-1311 Nuke 10-1317LUnder ✗
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