KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.65
Hit
53.7%
EV+
+0.5%
Edge
-3.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.58
Hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.5%
Edge
-1.9
L10
40%
Rifler
Kvem
Eternal Fire vs Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 17.5
PP17.5
▲ L5 19.4 · L20 18.2LAN UNDER · 52% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
8/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Nemesis
No meeting with Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
7/14 hit at 17.5
Online
18.3
1/3 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kvem is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 87.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.58
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.5%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
49.8%458 picks
This player
40%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.5 headshots vs line 17.5 (6/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.5 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.58 vs line 17.5 → -1.92 (-11.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
16.21
HS/Map
9.09
K/D
0.99
ADR
75.4
KAST
72.7%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Nemesis gives up (35 series)-13.9% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 18.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 27, 08:08 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
12.8
K/D
0.83
Cache
8 maps
Kills
16.8
K/D
1.18
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.9
K/D
0.94
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
20
K/D
1.07
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
1.15
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
19.3
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 21 Cache 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 16 Ancient 22-20 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Cache 14-16 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 5 Cache 13-1 | 14 Dust2 22-20 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 14 Dust2 19-15 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 14 Mirage 12-16 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 8 Cache 13-6 | 14 Anubis 19-17 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 4 Cache 4-13 | 12 Anubis 16-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 6 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
