KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.31
Hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.4%
Edge
-2.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.11
Hit
64.3%
EV+
+11.4%
Edge
-2.4
L10
50%
Rifler
JamYoung
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
LEAN · UNDER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5
▼ L5 15.4 · L20 16.4
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
63%
10/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.56
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.2
8/11 hit at 17.5
Online
19
2/5 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm JamYoung is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 60.2% HS): below 0.784 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.11
Raw edge
-2.4
Cons. hit
64.3%
EV+
+11.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
17.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
64.3%
0 →
Learned
64.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
41.8%268 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.2% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 62.5% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 1% (under 22%) · 37.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 11% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 15.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 60%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 15.0 line
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
- • Model 15.11 vs line 17.5 → -2.39 (-13.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 69.9% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
13.59
HS/Map
8.19
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.7
ADR
79.8
KAST
72.5%
HS%
60.2%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.678 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.5 · KPR 0.668 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.784
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.79%
Final projected kills24.27
× realistic HS% (60.2%)15.11
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 72.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~13 HS · 32r79.9%
Normal46.4%
~17 HS · 41r59.4%
Close maps10.6%
~17 HS · 41r60.3%
Overtime1.4%
~19 HS · 47r45.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 11% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18r
+3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+1% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep69.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 16.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 54.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 60% | |
| 17.5 Under | 64.3% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 67.2% | |
| 19.5 Under | 69% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 15→17.5+2.5
- Back on board17.5 → 17.5Oct 25, 08:16 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 25, 08:15 PM
- Back on board15 → 17.5Oct 25, 08:15 PM
- Pulled15Oct 25, 08:00 AM
- First seen15Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
61.7%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.82
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.26
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.89
Cache
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.4
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 1 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 7 Ancient 13-3 | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
