KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.89
Hit
53%
EV+
-8.2%
Edge
+1.4
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.2
Hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Edge
+2.7
L10
80%
Rifler
NAF
Liquid vs Aurora
PLAYABLE · OVER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5UD12.5
≈ L5 15.0 · L20 15.5
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
79%
11/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.3
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
No meeting with Aurora in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.5
11/14 hit at 12.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NAF is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0% · Polymarket 25.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~24 kills at 54.5% HS): 0.559 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59.2%) or blowout (34.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.2
Raw edge
+2.7
Cons. hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Rating
6.9/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
12.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
61.5%
0 →
Learned
61.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
55.1%314 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 26% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 78.6% at this line
Game script fits · 41.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 34% (under 40%) · team 26% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 0.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.9 headshots vs line 12.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 55%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.9 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 15.2 vs line 12.5 → +2.7 (21.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 59.2% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.21
HS/Map
7.75
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.8
KAST
77.1%
HS%
54.5%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7.8 · KPR 0.689 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Cache)7.4 · KPR 0.685 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.559
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.17
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills27.89
× realistic HS% (54.5%)15.2
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 73.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.2%
~13 HS · 34r50.9%
Normal52.5%
~16 HS · 43r80.5%
Close maps2.7%
~16 HS · 44r81.7%
Overtime10.6%
~19 HS · 50r92%
Match context
Oct 27, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 26% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
21.1r
+5% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.9r
+5% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep59.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 28 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 15.9 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 64.8% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63.5% | |
| 12.5 Over | 61.5% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 58.3% | |
| 14.5 Over | 52% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
62.2%
K/D
1.67
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.17
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
52%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.39
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.67
HS%
43.3%
K/D
0.83
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.69
HS%
44.4%
K/D
1.09
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Legacy | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-25 | FUT | 10 Cache 5-13 | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 10 Inferno 16-12 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 1 Cache 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Cache 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 4 Dust2 0-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 8 Cache 16-13 | 9 Anubis 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
