KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.98
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.5%
Edge
-5.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.8
Hit
63%
EV+
+9.2%
Edge
-3.2
L10
50%
Rifler
qw1nk1
K27 vs B8
RISK · UNDER 27
BEST UNDER · UD 28.5PP27UD28.5SL27.5
▲ L5 27.8 · L20 26.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other wayLAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 27 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.36
Previous meeting · vs B8
No meeting with B8 in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22
4/4 hit at 27
Online
27.5
8/15 hit at 27
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm qw1nk1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.665 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.98
Raw edge
-5.0
Cons. hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
60.3%
0 →
Learned
60.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 25-29
All players · Kills
42.7%389 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT 4% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 5.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.3 kills vs line 27.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 63%. Next: vs B8, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.3 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 21.98 vs line 27 → -5.02 (-18.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.4% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.16
HS/Map
8.26
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.63
ADR
72.2
KAST
69.5%
HS%
62.8%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)9.4 · KPR 0.454 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)12.6 · KPR 0.648 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.665
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.14%
Final projected kills21.98
B8 gives up (46 series)+4.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27. Model: 78.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.7%
~19 kills · 34r92%
Normal60.5%
~23 kills · 42r73.8%
Close maps11.3%
~24 kills · 43r70.1%
Overtime3.5%
~27 kills · 49r50.7%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 AM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Cache
21r
-25% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
+7% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Under) · avg 27.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Under | 53.6% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 58.2% | |
| 27 Under | 60.3% | OFFERED |
| 28 Under | 61.9% | |
| 29 Under | 63% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27-0.5
- Moved down27.5 → 27Oct 26, 11:11 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 09:40 PM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.43
HS%
63.1%
K/D
0.58
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.69
HS%
67.9%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
60.2%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
58%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.97
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.74
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.91
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 22 Nuke 11-13 | 16 Mirage 13-8 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 20 Mirage 8-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 4 Nuke 13-7 | 20 Anubis 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 9 Cache 10-13 | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 19 Nuke 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 10 Cache 10-13 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Cache 9-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 18 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 25 Anubis 13-5 | 16 Cache 14-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 18 Ancient 13-5 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 5 Cache 13-6 | 19 Nuke 13-6 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 3 Cache 4-13 | 12 Nuke 13-5 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 14 Cache 9-13 | 7 Ancient 1-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 9 Cache 10-13 | 13 Nuke 5-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
