KillsBetter playRisk
Line
22
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.66
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.7%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.74
Hit
43.2%
EV+
-25.2%
Edge
-0.8
L10
40%
Rifler
viridian
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
RISK · OVER 22
PP22
▲ L5 24.2 · L20 21.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 22 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.65
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
1/1 hit · avg 32 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
32
Over 22 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
23.9
4/7 hit at 22
Online
20.9
5/13 hit at 22
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm viridian is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.502 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.2%) or blowout (29.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.66
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.8
Line
22
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.4%
0 →
Learned
50.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 20-24
All players · Kills
58.2%55 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 29% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.5 kills vs line 22.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 47%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.5 against a 22.0 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.66 vs line 22 → +0.66 (3.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.8 rounds · 2-0 56.2% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.97
HS/Map
5.2
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.51
ADR
61.1
KAST
71.8%
HS%
47.4%
Multi-kill
9.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)9.7 · KPR 0.472 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)13 · KPR 0.571 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.502
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.95
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills22.66
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22. Model: 53.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.1%
~19 kills · 37r25.6%
Normal48.4%
~24 kills · 46r55.4%
Close maps16.9%
~24 kills · 47r58.5%
Overtime5.6%
~27 kills · 53r75.4%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.8r
-7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23r
+13% KPR here
Total
43.8r
2-0 sweep56.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22 (Over) · avg 21.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
22
Nearby lines
| 20 Over | 60.1% | |
| 21 Over | 55.7% | below BE |
| 22 Over | 50.4% | OFFERED |
| 23 Over | 46.8% | below BE |
| 24 Over | 41.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22
Line movement
first 22→22no change
- First seen22Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.46
HS%
51.9%
K/D
0.75
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.59
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.98
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
39.6%
K/D
0.86
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.45
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.6
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
7.3
KPR
0.44
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.59
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.9
Cache
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.4
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Alter Ego | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Ancient 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 19 Dust2 17-19 | 13 Inferno 9-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 10 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Cache 13-2 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Anubis 11-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 17 Inferno 16-19 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 7 Inferno 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-1 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 11 Anubis 13-5 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-02-08 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Overpass 6-13 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-02-08 | Mindfreak | 17 Overpass 13-11 | 19 Nuke 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-02-07 | Underground | 19 Nuke 9-13 | 17 Overpass 13-10 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-02-07 | Mindfreak | 3 Anubis 3-13 | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-01-31 | Rooster | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
