KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.46
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
+1.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.68
Hit
47%
EV+
-18.6%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%
Rifler
sliimey
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
RISK · OVER 31
BEST OVER · PP 31PP31UD31.5SL31.5
≈ L5 34.0 · L20 35.0Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 31 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±6.32
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
33
Over 31 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.6
3/5 hit at 31
Online
35.8
12/15 hit at 31
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Sliimey is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.76 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.3%) or blowout (40.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.46
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
+3.3 →
Learned
52%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 29-33
All players · Kills
53.2%280 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 21% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.1 kills vs line 31.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.81, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.1 against a 31.0 line
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.46 vs line 31 → +1.46 (4.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 65.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.5
HS/Map
10
K/D
1.36
KPR
0.81
ADR
88.5
KAST
76.1%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
20.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.9 · KPR 0.765 · 19.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)15 · KPR 0.734 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.76
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.06%
Final projected kills29.94
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.5%
~28 kills · 35r22.4%
Normal28.7%
~35 kills · 45r73.1%
Close maps23%
~35 kills · 44r71.3%
Overtime7.8%
~40 kills · 50r90.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 21% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
19.9r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-3% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep65.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Over) · avg 33.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Over | 57% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 52.9% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 32 Over | 44.5% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 40.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.82
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.77
HS%
53.6%
K/D
1.26
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.97
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.6
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.3%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
1.19
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.54
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.92
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 20 Anubis 13-11 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 22 Inferno 13-3 | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 16 Nuke 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 22 Anubis 10-13 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 25 Dust2 9-13 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 16 Anubis 6-13 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 20 Inferno 13-11 | 16 Dust2 12-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25 Ancient 4-13 | 14 Dust2 3-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Inferno 1-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 23 Nuke 13-3 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 28 Inferno 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 28 Nuke 19-15 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 32 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Dust2 13-3 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 15 Ancient 13-1 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Abyssal | 21 Ancient 7-13 | 23 Anubis 0-1 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 12 Mirage 13-0 | 25 Dust2 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 24 Inferno 19-17 | 15 Nuke 13-3 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 17 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Anubis 5-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
