KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.65
Hit
43.2%
EV+
-25.2%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.29
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
90%
Rifler
zont1x
Team Spirit vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 10.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10.5PP10.5UD9.5
▼ L5 7.2 · L20 9.8Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 42% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.14
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
1/1 hit · avg 6 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-10 · Cache 13-5 · W
6
Under 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.8
13/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 64.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 40.1% HS): below 0.592 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.29
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.8%
0 →
Learned
52.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
48.7%154 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: team 64% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 64% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 9/10 at this line · projection 2.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.0 headshots vs line 10.5 (1/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 40%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.0 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.29 vs line 10.5 → -0.21 (-2.0%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 90% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.28
HS/Map
4.92
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.57
ADR
66.4
KAST
70.1%
HS%
40.1%
Multi-kill
13.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)4.6 · KPR 0.536 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Mirage)5.7 · KPR 0.635 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.592
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.11%
Final projected kills25.65
× realistic HS% (40.1%)10.29
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 54.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.9%
~9 HS · 37r74.4%
Normal43.3%
~11 HS · 46r51.3%
Close maps25.2%
~11 HS · 47r46.2%
Overtime5.6%
~12 HS · 53r31.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Heads upUnder risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.5r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.7r
+12% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.0 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 35.1% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 43.9% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 52.8% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 58.6% | |
| 12.5 Under | 62.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.53
HS%
42.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
39.6%
K/D
0.94
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | TYLOO | 3 Mirage 13-5 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 2 Ancient 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 3 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Anubis 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 1 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 11-13 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 2 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 1 Ancient 13-10 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 9 Anubis 16-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 5 Cache 9-13 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ |
