KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.91
Hit
57.2%
EV+
-1.0%
Edge
+1.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
21.33
Hit
57.2%
EV+
-1.0%
Edge
+0.8
L10
80%
Rifler
FL4MUS
GamerLegion vs Envy
RISK · OVER 32.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP32.5UD32.5SL32.5
▲ L5 40.2 · L20 35.7Risk · Edge +1.4 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
69%
11/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.05
Previous meeting · vs Envy
No meeting with Envy in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
36.2
7/11 hit at 32.5
Online
34.6
4/5 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm FL4MUS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.725 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51%) or blowout (22.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.91
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
57.2%
EV+
-1.0%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.2%
0 →
Learned
57.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
53.5%230 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 68.8% at this line
Game script fits · 44.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%) · team 38% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 3.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 37.1 kills vs line 32.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.79, HS 63%. Next: vs Envy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 37.1 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 33.91 vs line 32.5 → +1.41 (4.3%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 51% · OT 14.9%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
17.84
HS/Map
11.22
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.79
ADR
87.9
KAST
71.9%
HS%
62.9%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)16.7 · KPR 0.763 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Cache)17.2 · KPR 0.748 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.725
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.84
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.21%
Final projected kills33.91
Envy gives up (16 series)+4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 56.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.1%
~29 kills · 38r28%
Normal40.9%
~33 kills · 44r50.3%
Close maps22.1%
~36 kills · 48r65.6%
Overtime14.9%
~41 kills · 54r82.3%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 PM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 37.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Ancient
21.8r
M2 Cache
23r
-2% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep51%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)37%
Overtime14.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 32 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 37.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 60.8% | |
| 31.5 Over | 59.1% | |
| 32.5 Over | 57.2% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 54.9% | below BE |
| 34.5 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 33→32.5-0.5
- Back on board33 → 32.5Oct 26, 04:13 PM
- Pulled33Oct 26, 04:11 PM
- First seen33Oct 25, 10:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.16
Cache
7 maps
Kills
18.9
KPR
0.77
HS%
71.2%
K/D
1.22
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
62.6%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.65
HS%
64.3%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
19.8
KPR
0.95
HS%
70.9%
K/D
1.36
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.72
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | PRIVATE | 22 Mirage 10-13 | 17 Cache 16-12 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | SINNERS | 20 Nuke 13-5 | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | BET-M | 23 Ancient 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 23 Ancient 17-19 | 25 Nuke 16-14 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | magic | 24 Cache 13-10 | 19 Ancient 13-5 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 24 Mirage 13-11 | 28 Cache 19-17 | 52 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | 3DMAX | 18 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Dust2 11-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | magic | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Cache 13-8 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | K27 | 25 Cache 13-10 | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | TYLOO | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | FURIA | 18 Cache 13-11 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | K27 | 11 Cache 13-4 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | MOUZ | 16 Mirage 11-13 | 32 Ancient 22-19 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-13 | JiJieHao | 22 Dust2 13-3 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-22 | HOTU | 28 Dust2 11-13 | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 13 Anubis 9-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ |
