KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.57
Hit
46.6%
EV+
-12.9%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.36
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-1.8%
Edge
+0.9
L10
60%
AWPer
nqz
Made in Brazil vs Inner Circle Esports
RISK · OVER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5
≈ L5 30.8 · L20 30.3
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Esports
No meeting with Inner Circle Esports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.3
8/16 hit at 29.5
Online
30
2/4 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nqz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: across ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.7%) or blowout (20.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.57
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
46.6%
EV+
-12.9%
Exp. rounds
44
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
51%678 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: nqz is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.8 kills vs line 29.5 (4/10 over). Next: vs Inner Circle, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.8 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.57 vs line 29.5 → +1.07 (3.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 55.7% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.12
HS/Map
5.12
K/D
1.17
ADR
67.2
KAST
77.8%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Inner Circle Esports gives up (83 series)-2.8% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 1:30 PM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
M1 Ancient
22.8r
M2 Mirage
21.3r
Total
44r
2-0 sweep55.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 29.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
17.3
K/D
1.26
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.1
K/D
1.09
Cache
7 maps
Kills
17.7
K/D
1.28
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.3
K/D
1.01
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
K/D
1.3
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
17
K/D
1.03
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Eternal Fire | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 24 Cache 19-17 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | 100 Thieves | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 21 Mirage 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Astralis | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 26 Cache 16-14 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Envy | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Ancient 13-5 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 13 Cache 12-16 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | NRG | 18 Cache 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-2 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | magic | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 16 Mirage 11-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | FURIA | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Legacy | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 24 Ancient 13-11 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Alliance | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 18 Cache 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | BetBoom | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 19 Anubis 14-16 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | 9z | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 17 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | The MongolZ | 10 Ancient 5-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | K27 | 8 Cache 6-13 | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | EYEBALLERS | 25 Ancient 16-14 | 19 Inferno 13-8 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 17 Cache 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Eternal Fire | 23 Ancient 16-19 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
