KillsBetter playLean
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.92
Hit
59%
EV+
+2.2%
Edge
-3.1
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.13
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.0%
Edge
-1.4
L10
70%
Rifler
dangeR
Abyssal vs Rooster
LEAN · UNDER 29
▼ L5 23.0 · L20 26.1LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
High
Previous meeting · vs Rooster
0/2 hit · avg 30 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 13-2 · Dust2 13-6 · W
30
Over 29 ✗
2026-06-09 · DFRAG Open Series 5
Overpass 13-6 · Nuke 7-13 · Split
30
Over 29 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22.6
7/9 hit at 29
Online
29.2
4/10 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm dangeR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.92
Raw edge
-3.1
Cons. hit
59%
EV+
+2.2%
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
29
Verdict
Lean
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
48.4%607 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: dangeR is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.6 kills vs line 29.0 (2/10 over). Next: vs Rooster, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.6 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 25.92 vs line 29 → -3.08 (-10.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 58.2% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.03
HS/Map
7.1
K/D
0.94
ADR
68.9
KAST
69.8%
Multi-kill
11.7%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
M1 Inferno
21.3r
M2 Mirage
19.6r
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep58.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 24.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
29
Line movement
first 29→offno change
- Pulled29Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board29 → 29Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled29Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen29Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
13 maps
Kills
13.4
K/D
0.91
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14
K/D
1.2
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.6
K/D
1.05
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.5
K/D
0.81
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11.3
K/D
0.79
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
12
K/D
0.89
Cache
1 maps
Kills
10
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
K/D
0.83
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 13 Inferno 3-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 10 Cache 8-13 | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 21 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Inferno 8-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | KZG | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Mindfreak | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | FlyQuest | 8 Dust2 4-13 | 8 Inferno 8-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Ground Zero | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Dust2 16-12 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Arcade | 21 Mirage 13-11 | 25 Inferno 19-15 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-10 | Rooster | 15 Mirage 13-2 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | Arcade | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 25 Inferno 16-14 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | Ground Zero | 4 Mirage 0-13 | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Arcade | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 19 Mirage 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | MARKandLARRY | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 4 Overpass 6-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Rooster | 20 Overpass 13-6 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-08 | MGLBROS | 11 Inferno 13-2 | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-30 | Ding Cuts | 14 Mirage 13-3 | 17 Inferno 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
