KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.87
Hit
40%
EV+
-25.2%
Edge
-0.6
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.13
Hit
43.1%
EV+
-19.3%
Edge
-0.4
L10
30%
Rifler
Jotag3
Bestia Academy vs RED Canids Academy
RISK · UNDER 30.5
≈ L5 33.2 · L20 32.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
27%
3/11
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.92
Previous meeting · vs RED Canids Academy
No meeting with RED Canids Academy in his last 11 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
32.6
3/11 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jotag3 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 39.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.744 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.87
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
40%
EV+
-25.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
40%
0 →
Learned
40%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.9%450 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 2.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 11 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 27.3% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 41.0 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 40% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 2.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 30.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.82, HS 54%. Next: vs RED Canids Academy, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.87 vs line 30.5 → -0.63 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 58.4% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 22 maps)
Kills/Map
16.32
HS/Map
8.82
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.82
ADR
86.6
KAST
72.7%
HS%
54%
Multi-kill
21.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)14.2 · KPR 0.775 · 18.6r
Map 2 (Nuke)15.7 · KPR 0.713 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.744
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.39
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.71%
Final projected kills29.87
RED Canids Academy gives up (18 series)-9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 53.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.5%
~25 kills · 35r80.5%
Normal47.5%
~32 kills · 44r42.2%
Close maps10.4%
~32 kills · 44r43.8%
Overtime5.6%
~36 kills · 50r22.9%
Match context
Oct 23, 2:00 PM CTOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 39.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 40% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Inferno
18.6r
-2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.4r
-10% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep58.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)16%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 32.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 32.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 37.3% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 40% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 44.5% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 47.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 23, 02:06 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 23, 10:50 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.1%
K/D
1.43
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.91
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.43
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.98
HS%
55.1%
K/D
1.96
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.59
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
22
KPR
1
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.38
Cache
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.87
HS%
55%
K/D
1.54
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Procyon | 13 Inferno 5-13 | 18 Nuke 9-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | ALKA | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 22 Anubis 9-13 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Galorys | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 13 Ancient 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | Low Cortisol BR | 32 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 22 Nuke 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Sementes do Mal | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 24 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Zetta | 20 Ancient 13-3 | 19 Inferno 13-5 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Imperial | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DAMAJUANA | 20 Cache 13-10 | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Blitzkrieg | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 16 Ancient 13-1 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | BORRACHEIROS | 27 Nuke 22-20 | 10 Mirage 3-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
