KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.93
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+12.0%
Edge
-2.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.56
Hit
59.6%
EV+
+11.5%
Edge
-0.9
L10
60%
AWPer
aidKiT
Brute vs INOX Division
RISK · UNDER 32.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSUD32.5SL32.5
▲ L5 35.8 · L20 31.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 32.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.55
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.8
7/9 hit at 32.5
Online · this match
34.8
5/11 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm aidKiT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.785 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.93
Raw edge
-2.6
Cons. hit
59.9%
EV+
+12.0%
Rating
4.7/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.9%
0 →
Learned
59.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
47.7%176 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.1% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 41.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 41% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.1 kills vs line 31.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 32%. Next: vs INOX Division, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 35.1 against a 31.5 line
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 29.93 vs line 32.5 → -2.57 (-7.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 55.1% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.82
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
1.31
KPR
0.78
ADR
76.9
KAST
75.4%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
21.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.9 · KPR 0.743 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.5 · KPR 0.738 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.785
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills30.44
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 32.5. Model: 66.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.6%
~25 kills · 35r92%
Normal41.7%
~31 kills · 43r63.4%
Close maps12.3%
~32 kills · 44r54.5%
Overtime14.4%
~36 kills · 50r27.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
20.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.2r
-6% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep55.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Under) · avg 35.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Under | 53.1% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 56.7% | |
| 32.5 Under | 59.9% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Under | 62.5% | |
| 34.5 Under | 64.5% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 31.5→32.5+1
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 02:10 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 02:05 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 02:05 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 02:04 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 02:02 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:58 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:57 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:57 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:56 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:56 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:48 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:46 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:44 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:32 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:30 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:28 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:26 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:24 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:22 PM
- Moved down32.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:12 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 01:08 PM
- Back on board31.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
28.9%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32.3%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.55
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.5
KPR
0.88
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.58
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.67
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 24 Cache 8-13 | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 15 Nuke 13-4 | 8 Mirage 3-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 19 Mirage 13-16 | 22 Inferno 19-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 24 Inferno 13-6 | 21 Mirage 13-5 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 21 Inferno 16-13 | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 30 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 10 Mirage 13-1 | 23 Dust2 13-5 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 25 Cache 16-12 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 21 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 19 Anubis 16-14 | 22 Mirage 13-8 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 15 Cache 7-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 10 Mirage 3-13 | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
