KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.57
Hit
43%
EV+
-25.5%
Edge
-0.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.41
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.3%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
Rifler
puni
ALKA vs LOS NINOS
RISK · UNDER 25.5
≈ L5 25.2 · L20 25.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.48
Previous meeting · vs LOS NINOS
No meeting with LOS NINOS in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
17.5
2/2 hit at 25.5
Online · this match
26.9
7/17 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm puni is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.597 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.57
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
43%
EV+
-25.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43%
0 →
Learned
43%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43.3%323 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 13% (under 22%) · 42.7 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.4 kills vs line 25.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 55%. Next: vs LOS NINOS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 26.4 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.57 vs line 25.5 → -0.93 (-3.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 52.2% · OT 12.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
12.97
HS/Map
7.08
K/D
0.81
KPR
0.61
ADR
68.9
KAST
68.7%
HS%
54.6%
Multi-kill
14.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.9 · KPR 0.576 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.7 · KPR 0.57 · 22.2r
Required KPR to clear0.597
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.44%
Final projected kills24.57
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 55.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14%
~21 kills · 36r81.7%
Normal53.8%
~24 kills · 41r63.6%
Close maps19.4%
~26 kills · 46r46.9%
Overtime12.8%
~30 kills · 52r26.8%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Dust2
20.5r
-6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep52.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime12.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 26.4 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 35.7% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 39.3% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 43% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 48.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 52% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 23, 05:00 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 23, 12:15 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 23, 08:02 AM
- Back on board25.5 → 26.5Oct 23, 07:48 AM
- Pulled25.5Oct 23, 07:06 AM
- First seen25.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
15 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
47.2%
K/D
0.77
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
64.4%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.38
HS%
56.7%
K/D
0.48
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
50%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Cache
1 maps
Kills
29
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.7%
K/D
0.83
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | MEIA NOITE | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Bounty Hunters | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 17 Nuke 14-16 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | BESTIA Academy | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | ex-Keyd Stars | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | MEIA NOITE | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Mira | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Turma do Pagode | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 16 Dust2 13-4 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | MEIA NOITE | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 15 Dust2 16-12 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | BORRACHEIROS | 19 Dust2 13-7 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Keyd Stars | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 23 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Sementes do Mal | 29 Cache 22-25 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 44 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Grêmio | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Procyon | 2 Inferno 5-13 | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 2 Dust2 13-1 | 11 Ancient 12-16 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Galorys | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Dust2 1-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | Procyon | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Inferno 22-20 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | UNO MILLE | 9 Inferno 13-7 | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | BORRACHEIROS | 20 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
